Let's Get Political!

[Ardiles]

My guess is that it's going through this time.  The ERG will cave in.  The DUP will probably follow.  They know that this 'deal' is as good as it gets for them.  Nick Boles' tweets a short while ago on what would happen if they block the deal today = their worst nightmare.

Their 2nd worst nightmare = what will follow after it all goes through...and they witness how the UK's leverage, which we will need during the main trade negotiations, has evaporated.

[Batch]

Agreed Ardiles.

edit: Unless Cox says "nothing's changed" - which seems highly unlikely

[horlock07]

My guess is that it's going through this time.  The ERG will cave in.  The DUP will probably follow.  They know that this 'deal' is as good as it gets for them.  Nick Boles' tweets a short while ago on what would happen if they block the deal today = their worst nightmare.

Their 2nd worst nightmare = what will follow after it all goes through...and they witness how the UK's leverage, which we will need during the main trade negotiations, has evaporated.

I am inclined to agree, however the crux seems to be that May has 'negotiated' that in the case of 'bad faith' (which is notoriously hard to prove legally) the mechanism for legal review (if it ever got that) is to be the ECJ, that alone is hilarious!

[Nemo]

Think it'll be close tonight, but leaning towards agreeing with you Ardiles. Can't see there being a better deal for leavers, I think if you were going to go for a full no deal approach you'd need to do it by restarting the A50 clock and planning properly as Chalkie's Shorts mentioned a few posts ago, trying to rush it would just be calamitous.

Brexit fatigue is a very real thing, I still think the whole think is completely wrong but I'd almost be glad of it being over so the wheels of government can focus on any of the other very real problems affecting the country and the world. Not that fucking our economy will help with those of course, but that ship seems to have sailed.

[horlock07]

Classic stuff from a leave voter on the wireless earlier

“I was in hospital for 2 weeks recently and almost all the staff were foreigners, it’s disgraceful”

You couldn’t make it up

There is a guy on another forum I frequent (coincidentally I suspect from a quick google of his characteristics a quite high profile kipper from Swindon) who genuinely seems to believe that the redundant workers dropping out of the manufacturing sector can be quickly retrained to address all the shortfalls in the health sector...

[tans]

I see the IRA claimed responsibility for those bombs from last week

[pauld]

Brexit fatigue is a very real thing, I still think the whole think is completely wrong but I'd almost be glad of it being over so the wheels of government can focus on any of the other very real problems affecting the country and the world.

Over? This is just the start, and this was supposed to be the easy bit. Assuming they do manage to get this bit through, we've then got to negotiate the actual future relationship with the EU. Not to mention all the other trade deals to replace the ones we had via the EU, all on much worse terms as we're in a weaker position. We're in for a decade or more of this shit.

[Flashheart]

I see the IRA claimed responsibility for those bombs from last week

Holy fuck!

[pauld]

I see the IRA claimed responsibility for those bombs from last week

Which one though? Provisional IRA, Continuity IRA, the New IRA or the "I can't Believe it's Not the IRA"?

[Nemo]

Over? This is just the start, and this was supposed to be the easy bit. Assuming they do manage to get this bit through, we've then got to negotiate the actual future relationship with the EU. Not to mention all the other trade deals to replace the ones we had via the EU, all on much worse terms as we're in a weaker position. We're in for a decade or more of this shit.

I realise it won't be over by any stretch of the imagination, but hopefully it'll at least become a bit more technocratic and less politically all consuming. Brexiteers can claim their victory and then the civil services can try and fill in the gaps and smooth out the worst of it, and politics can rumble on to think about something like the planet being absolutely fucked by global warming instead (joy).

The Attorney General's legal advice has just been released and basically says not much has changed though, so hard to see a significant change in the DUP/ERG position. As much as it's entirely her own fault, I don't envy Mrs. May the week she's having.

[tans]

Which one though? Provisional IRA, Continuity IRA, the New IRA or the "I can't Believe it's Not the IRA"?

https://news.sky.com/story/ira-says-it-is-responsible-for-parcel-bombs-police-11662974

They must have used Yodel to deliver them though, one didnt turn up

[Batch]

The Attorney General's legal advice has just been released and basically says not much has changed though, so hard to see a significant change in the DUP/ERG position. As much as it's entirely her own fault, I don't envy Mrs. May the week she's having.

Oh.

So if the deal goes through, it was politcal postering all along rather than a genuine worry..

[horlock07]

Legal advice is here, pertinent paragraph is the last (19), essentially nothing has changed, so any change in MP's vote will be a political decision.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785188/190312_-_Legal_Opinion_on_Joint_Instrument_and_Unilateral_Declaration_co..___2_.pdf

[Flashheart]

Cox's verdict is not good for May...

[Batch]

Cox's verdict is not good for May...

Potentially. Never underestimate an MPs ability to do a u-turn and claim it is now a good enough deal based on not much at all.

Personally think this has all the marking of a Slabber (best endeavours, given shit).