Let's Get Political!

[ReadingRed]

Thanks Reading Red. Will you post the reasoning for us?

Nothing yet, but the legal counsel for the applicant is on James O'Brien n LBC now, explaining why the referendum has been found to be illegal.
Interesting listening.

[RedRag]

Appreciated.  Unfortunately missed it but will see if I can re-run the show. I'm truly flummoxed as to why the case received such truly minimal publicity.

[horlock07]

They are only local results and thus you often don't get to understand the nuances which lead to abnormalities, but there are some proper huge swings in vote showing up in local elections at the moment with the Tories and Labour taking a kicking in many areas, interesting times ahead I suspect once a GE rolls up.

[ReadingRed]

Appreciated.  Unfortunately missed it but will see if I can re-run the show. I'm truly flummoxed as to why the case received such truly minimal publicity.

Here's the LBC Interview with the QC: https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-referendum-corruptly-won-but-result-stands/

[Ardiles]

Game changer from Labour?

Jeremy Corbyn: we’ll back a public vote to stop Tory Brexit

[Batch]

or too little too late?

How do they propose to force that into play? May won't bat an eyelid

[horlock07]

or too little too late?

How do they propose to force that into play? May won't bat an eyelid

I suppose that with the Labour votes plus the Tory remainers it means that we are closer to a majority for second ref, although not sure what the figures are like, looks like the Ind Group achieved more in little over a week than expected, the polling was looking interesting...

YouGov yesterday...

Labour: 23%
The Independent Group: 18%

However I still suspect its a con from Labour as Milne wants to leave, the cynci suspects that this 2nd ref move is designed to deliberately spook more Lab MPs in Leave areas into blocking/abstaining Cooper + backing May's deal. JC gets to say he has tried to implement party policy, but Brexit still happens.

[Saxondale]

One thing to note whenever they publish their polls, Yougov are an outlier.  Where a month ago every other poll had labour level or in the lead Yougov had the tories 6 point ahead.  There will have been a big effect on the labour vote but Yougov always poll labour and the lib dems very much lower than every other poll.

Also, the conference motion was to put forward the alternative labour Brexit plan and if that was rejected all other things were open including a second ref.

[horlock07]

One thing to note whenever they publish their polls, Yougov are an outlier.  Where a month ago every other poll had labour level or in the lead Yougov had the tories 6 point ahead.  There will have been a big effect on the labour vote but Yougov always poll labour and the lib dems very much lower than every other poll.

Also, the conference motion was to put forward the alternative labour Brexit plan and if that was rejected all other things were open including a second ref.

Don't disagree about the peculiarities of YouGov, but one would expect the variances that affect the Lib Dems and Lab would be similar for TIG as it sits similarly on the overall political spectrum.

Whatever way one looks at it to be sitting that close to a non-party (other polls are showing similar if not so extreme) is a little embarrassing and when one also takes into account the swings against Labour which have been happening in a lot of locals (similar to the Tories who are in power and buggering up the country so swings against are entirely normal in  this part of the election cycle) Magic Grandpa needed to do something although probably merely with smoke and mirrors as usual.   

[Reg Smeeton]

One thing to note whenever they publish their polls, Yougov are an outlier.  Where a month ago every other poll had labour level or in the lead Yougov had the tories 6 point ahead.  There will have been a big effect on the labour vote but Yougov always poll labour and the lib dems very much lower than every other poll.

Also, the conference motion was to put forward the alternative labour Brexit plan and if that was rejected all other things were open including a second ref.

Yes. I'm going to have to think about this... not in favour of a second ref.

Back in Nov, I flagged up John McDonnell thoughts on the matter....

Interesting from McDonnell today.... his take over the coming weeks, is that MP's will vote down May's deal, but there will not be a GE, due to turkeys not voting for Christmas, and given Cameron's sleight of hand on fixed terms, they have to vote for one.

 There then might be some tweaks to May's deal, but it will have to go to a second ref, where the question will be May's deal or Remain.

 No deal, not being a realistic option as it will tank the economy.

Looks about right...

[Ardiles]

While we’re on the subject of polling, Prof John Curtice on the Today Programme this morning made the interesting point that polling on the question of May’s Deal vs No Brexit came out consistently in favour of No Brexit, with approx 53% vote share in favour of No Brexit.  (As an aside, polling for No Deal vs No Brexit was even more emphatically in favour of No Brexit.)  Interestingly, the majority for No Brexit was, according to the Prof, not because of voters having changed their minds - but because the older generation was passing on and younger voters, who favour No Brexit by a margin of more than 2:1, are joining the electoral roll to replace them.

This is interesting, of course, because over the medium term the effect is likely to continue, increasing the majority for No Brexit.  There will come a point, surely, where a policy of leaving will look increasingly at odds with the prevailing ‘will of the people’ – which, I suspect, is why Leave supporting politicians and supporters are keen to get the process over the line as quickly as possible.  The longer the process takes, the less likely it is to happen at all.  In a few years from now, it will be easy for opponents of Brexit (whether it has happened by then or not) to characterise it as a niche movement favoured by an increasingly ageing sector of the population.

[RedRag]

Here's the LBC Interview with the QC: https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-referendum-corruptly-won-but-result-stands/

 Thanks again.

Liked Simor's tour de france analogy.  Extending it would see Lance Armstrong remain a winner for finishing first.

[horlock07]

While we’re on the subject of polling, Prof John Curtice on the Today Programme this morning made the interesting point that polling on the question of May’s Deal vs No Brexit came out consistently in favour of No Brexit, with approx 53% vote share in favour of No Brexit.  (As an aside, polling for No Deal vs No Brexit was even more emphatically in favour of No Brexit.)  Interestingly, the majority for No Brexit was, according to the Prof, not because of voters having changed their minds - but because the older generation was passing on and younger voters, who favour No Brexit by a margin of more than 2:1, are joining the electoral roll to replace them.

This is interesting, of course, because over the medium term the effect is likely to continue, increasing the majority for No Brexit.  There will come a point, surely, where a policy of leaving will look increasingly at odds with the prevailing ‘will of the people’ – which, I suspect, is why Leave supporting politicians and supporters are keen to get the process over the line as quickly as possible.  The longer the process takes, the less likely it is to happen at all.  In a few years from now, it will be easy for opponents of Brexit (whether it has happened by then or not) to characterise it as a niche movement favoured by an increasingly ageing sector of the population.

Cannot be bothered to trawl the internet to find it, but there was a date reasonably recently where based on demographics of population and Brexit vote split that it could be mathematically shown that based on natural wastage and voters turning 18 the balance would have naturally tipped.

[Reg Smeeton]

Cannot be bothered to trawl the internet to find it, but there was a date reasonably recently where based on demographics of population and Brexit vote split that it could be mathematically shown that based on natural wastage and voters turning 18 the balance would have naturally tipped.

All that stuff is bollocks... the 16 ref was a snap shot at the time, so for example only 50% of eligible 18-34 year olds could be bothered to vote, who's to know if the other 50% would bother this time and if so how they'd swing.  Of the 16 year olds in 16 now coming on tap, who's to know if they'll be any more motivated, or how they'll vote?

Although the Brexiteers campaign has been, not unexpectedly given the personnel, a complete clusterfuck, the EU hasn't exactly covered itself in glory. 

Again not unexpected as it is a flawed organisation.... so let's imagine you're 18 when a second ref happens, at a time when Trump is pissing over nuclear arms treaties, Putin is showing on RTV targets for warhead strikes and India and Pakistan are invoved in a conflict over Kashmir.

The US insistence that Europe talkes up responsiblity for it's own defence, means that an EU army becomes necessary... the Tory press point out that some form of EU national service... S Korean and Hueng Min Son style is being considered where are you putting your 18 year old cross?

[Batch]

May trying to head off Wednesday "take no deal off the table" vote by promising a similar vote should her vote not go through in March 12th

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47373996

Can kicking has to stop Parliament, in the words of the green clever one - do or do not.