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Author Topic: Let's Get Political!  (Read 375917 times)
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Thingie


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« Reply #3705 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 10:39:08 »

I could see how a "no deal" would trigger Boris/JRM to mobilise a vote of no-confidence in May and make their play.

I could see how that would trigger a leadership contest.

I could see how that would cause calls of "no mandate to govern" from the opposition.

But like I can't see how it would de-facto bring down the Government, and I can't se it actually affecting Brexit unless there are legal methods to place us in limbo/get an extension until its resolved (which I guess may lead to a dissolving of the Tory/DUP alliance & depending on the N Ireland issue resolution).
« Last Edit: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 15:04:27 by Batch » Logged
Ardiles


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« Reply #3706 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 10:48:50 »

An argument was made on the Today Programme this morning that Brexit-supporting Tories who are minded to vote against the Chequers proposal may change their minds when confronted with the prospect of a Labour government (if Chequers is voted down).  I just can't see how that would come about.  Turkeys (Tories) tend not to vote for Christmas.  Must be missing something here.
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Abrahammer


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« Reply #3707 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 10:50:54 »

I doubt there will be a push from Labour for a GE in the next 3-4 years, will be a poisoned chalice trying to sort out the shambles left by Brexit
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3708 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 10:59:18 »

An argument was made on the Today Programme this morning that Brexit-supporting Tories who are minded to vote against the Chequers proposal may change their minds when confronted with the prospect of a Labour government (if Chequers is voted down).  I just can't see how that would come about.  Turkeys (Tories) tend not to vote for Christmas.  Must be missing something here.

There are so many what ifs at the moment, that it isn't really worth too much thought. I'm going to take it one game at a time... the EU Couincil meeting in a little over a week when countries can hear what Barnier has to say on negotiations and decide whether they can sign off a deal, is next up.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #3709 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 13:45:08 »

I have a question.  If, as seems probable, the Chequers deal advocated by Theresa May is rejected by Parliament - would we then simply default to a No Deal Brexit position?  I have heard ERG/hard Brexit-supporting politicians suggest that this would be the case.

The reason I ask is that there are others who suggest that, if the Chequers deal is rejected, it could bring down the government and force a General Election.  But how do they draw this conclusion?  What is the mechanism by which that would happen, and why could the Conservatives not just soldier on if that happened?

Thanks.  (More than one question there, I know.)


You are correct in the assertion that no deal is the default outcome. All we have to do to get no deal is nothing.

The actual mechanism that could cause the UK government to collapse is a vote of no confidence, which (if passed) would result in a general election. The Torys are extremely vulnerable to this due to the fact that they are running a minority government. They would need every Tory to vote against the motion - probably doable. BUT, they would also need their friends in the DUP to support them. Remember, a no deal brexit would cause a hard border between NI and the ROI which is a DUP red line, so there's no way they would vote with the Torys in this eventually.

That said, someone would still have to win the general election, and it's not clear what exactly would happen if Brexit day come by while we had no government... my guess is legally we would leave with no deal but the EU may choose to extend article 50 to see what happens in the election.

Even if this came to pass, I'm still unclear on what the options would be. The Torys would no doubt trigger a leadership contest, then stand on either remain or leave depending on who wins. Labour would probably stand on either leave or a people's vote deal, and Lib Dems would obviously be remain. Who wins int his scenario? My guess is we get another minoriyt government and the country is still split down the middle.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey


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« Reply #3710 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 14:31:35 »

The way things are looking at the moment Iíll be heading out of the UK again around Brexit time.

Last season attending the CG! 😢
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Sir red ken
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« Reply #3711 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 16:21:31 »

The way things are looking at the moment Iíll be heading out of the UK again around Brexit time.

Last season attending the CG! 😢

Will you? will you really leave the UK just to wear a blue beret with gold starts on it.
Give that great europhile Richard Branson a call and live with him in the EU.
Oh I forgot, he likes it for us but not himself.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey


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« Reply #3712 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 16:27:43 »

Fuck all to do with Brexit. My grandson and family are moving to Greece. Gotta go too!
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Ardiles


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« Reply #3713 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 16:33:04 »

You are correct in the assertion that no deal is the default outcome. All we have to do to get no deal is nothing.

The actual mechanism that could cause the UK government to collapse is a vote of no confidence, which (if passed) would result in a general election. The Torys are extremely vulnerable to this due to the fact that they are running a minority government. They would need every Tory to vote against the motion - probably doable. BUT, they would also need their friends in the DUP to support them. Remember, a no deal brexit would cause a hard border between NI and the ROI which is a DUP red line, so there's no way they would vote with the Torys in this eventually.

That said, someone would still have to win the general election, and it's not clear what exactly would happen if Brexit day come by while we had no government... my guess is legally we would leave with no deal but the EU may choose to extend article 50 to see what happens in the election.

Even if this came to pass, I'm still unclear on what the options would be. The Torys would no doubt trigger a leadership contest, then stand on either remain or leave depending on who wins. Labour would probably stand on either leave or a people's vote deal, and Lib Dems would obviously be remain. Who wins int his scenario? My guess is we get another minoriyt government and the country is still split down the middle.

Brilliant.  Thank you.
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Sir red ken
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« Reply #3714 on: Tuesday, October 9, 2018, 17:52:11 »

Fuck all to do with Brexit. My grandson and family are moving to Greece. Gotta go too!
How sad I do feel for you. On one hand you'll miss following STFC.
On the other you'll have to put up with lovely weather, good cheap food and wine.
Sounds like a rock & a hard place.
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Bob's Orange


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« Reply #3715 on: Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 07:01:49 »

How sad I do feel for you. On one hand you'll miss following STFC.
On the other you'll have to put up with lovely weather, good cheap food and wine.
Sounds like a rock & a hard place.

Heís got Ifollow for that? Wink good luck Audrey with your move, the wife and I are probably going to do the same when our working careers come to an end (hopefully sooner rather than later!)
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Wobbly Bob


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« Reply #3716 on: Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 07:03:37 »

I like how the DUP line in the sand is not just a red one.
It's 'blood red'.

Presumably Fenian blood would be the preference but Tory blood would do if it came down it.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3717 on: Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 09:25:59 »

Heís got Ifollow for that? Wink good luck Audrey with your move, the wife and I are probably going to do the same when our working careers come to an end (hopefully sooner rather than later!)

Audrey is, of course, exercising his right to freedom of movement, which if memory serves he voted to remove for the likes of you and yours in the coming years.  Got to get in quick, only 6 months left before the likely no deal Brexit.

Interestingly, I see HMG is recruiting for staff to its RED dept.... Resilience and Emergency Division, who will be tasked with trying to mitigate the likely negative consequences of Brexit.  Not the sort of COYR, I want to see.
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horlock07


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« Reply #3718 on: Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 09:51:40 »

I like how the DUP line in the sand is not just a red one.
It's 'blood red'.

Presumably Fenian blood would be the preference but Tory blood would do if it came down it.

Similar to mad Arlene keep wittering on about it being unacceptable for NI to have differing rules to the rest of the UK, rather forgetting its apparently entirely acceptable when it applies to abortion, gay rights etc?
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3719 on: Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 09:59:18 »

Similar to mad Arlene keep wittering on about it being unacceptable for NI to have differing rules to the rest of the UK, rather forgetting its apparently entirely acceptable when it applies to abortion, gay rights etc?

Wonder what they're like on fracking..... Ireland I believe has a ban, like Germany.  The Tories are currently looking to change the rules on earthquakes, whereby if fracking produces a ruimble on the Richter scale operations have to stop. They think it's too low.
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