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Author Topic: So when do we allow ourselves to get excited?  (Read 49362 times)
Sippo
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« Reply #135 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 08:05:58 »

If you cant get excited about the potential of Swindon this year then just kill yourself.

Hmm, bit drastic.
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If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious shit...
kerry red

« Reply #136 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 08:10:00 »

Yeah, but think of the money you'd save
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Oxfordhater

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« Reply #137 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 09:46:26 »

 Up to second favourites to win the league and to get promotion for the first time this season..
« Last Edit: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 10:18:56 by Oxfordhater » Logged
Bathtime

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« Reply #138 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 09:50:50 »

If we can keep the present squad then why not.......?
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Bathtime
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« Reply #139 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 13:25:28 »

   Position/ Points                
   Champions   Runners Up   3rd    4th    5th   6th
2013/14   103   94   86   86   85   74
2012/13   84   83   79   77   75   74
2011/12   101   93   90   81   80   73
2010/11   95   92   87   79   77   71
2009/10   95   86   85   84   82   80
2008/09   96   89   87   84   82   76
2007/08   92   82   80   80   76   76
2006/07   91   85   83   82   79   75
2005/06   82   79   76   73   72   71
2004/05   98   86   79   75   72   71

Average Points per season required (rounded up)   94   87   84   81   78   75

Points per game required (based on average)   2.04   1.89   1.82   1.76   1.69   1.63

Highest points required   103   94   90   86   85   76

Lowest points required   82   79   76   73   72   71



Currently achieving 1.94 points per game, if we keep it up well reach 89 points. 




An update, including our promotion/play-off rivals figures/projected figures:

Swindon Town- 51 points from 25
Points per game so far: 2.04
Forecast total points at current rate: 93.84
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 103.5
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 93
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 82.5

Bristol City- 51 points from 24
Points per game so far: 2.125
Forecast total points at current rate: 97.75
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 106
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 95
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 84
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Franchise- 45 points from 23
Points per game so far: 1.965
Forecast total points at current rate: 89.99
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 102.5
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 91
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 79.5


Preston North End- 45 points from 24
Points per game so far: 1.875
Forecast total points at current rate: 86.25
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 100
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 89
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 78


Bradford City- 36 points from 24
Points per game so far: 1.5
Forecast total points at current rate: 69
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 91
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 80
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 69


Sheffield United- 36 points from 23
Points per game so far: 1.565
Forecast total points at current rate: 71.99
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 93.5
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 82
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 70.5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chesterfield- 35 points from 24
Points per game so far: 1.458
Forecast total points at current rate: 67.08
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 90
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 79
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 68


Rochdale- 34 points from 24
Points per game so far: 1.416
Forecast total points at current rate: 65.16
Total points with 2.5 points per game from now: 89
Total points with 2 points per game from now: 78
Total points with 1.5 points per game from now: 67


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Oaksey Moonraker

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« Reply #140 on: Tuesday, January 13, 2015, 22:06:30 »

You can do all the number crunching in the world around points required but there are so many variables. Teams rarely accrue points at a level rate, they will go through peaks and troughs in form. Look at 2009/10, when we piled on the points in December to March and went 2nd with 6 games left and win home games we would have easily a month before, we drew. Leeds looked dead in the water after our 3-0 win but regrouped and got over the line.

Throw in injuries, fatigue, suspensions, pitches, postponements, cup runs (not us), loss of form, deadline day, managerial changes (2012/13 anyone), relegation threatened teams playing out of their skins and pressure is the big one. These can all de-rail teams or turn seasons around.

In our favour, we are out of the cups, have a youthful, exuberant squad and Power seems to have good access to the loan market. What will be interesting is how our style of play holds up at the business end of the season. It seems so ingrained in the players that it maybe key when the pressure is on that we keep doing the things that have got us to where we are now.
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Utter Kant

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« Reply #141 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 00:43:55 »

I can't envisage us playing Championship football. However, this is mainly due to the fact that I've never seen Swindon play a game above League One level in my life time...
« Last Edit: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 00:45:50 by Utter Kant » Logged
The Million Pound Man

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« Reply #142 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 11:46:49 »

You can do all the number crunching in the world around points required but there are so many variables. Teams rarely accrue points at a level rate, they will go through peaks and troughs in form.

I agree; but we will still end up with an average points per game after 46games. The forecast averages go some way to factoring this is with a predicted total based on varying levels of form.
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herthab
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« Reply #143 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:09:31 »

I'm very uncomfortable with all the promotion talk. I'm heroically fighting against the thought that we could be playing Championship football next season and trying to keep my expectations at their usual, rather low, level. I've just got this feeling that, as soon I really start believing, it's all going to turn to shit.
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It's All Good..............
kerry red

« Reply #144 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:15:29 »

Not me.

I am totally convinced we are going up this time - based on us being fucking good, while the majority of the rest are utter shite this season.

Perfect storm
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Batch
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« Reply #145 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:19:52 »

I'm very uncomfortable with all the promotion talk. I'm heroically fighting against the thought that we could be playing Championship football next season and trying to keep my expectations at their usual, rather low, level. I've just got this feeling that, as soon I really start believing, it's all going to turn to shit.

I still reckon 2 of the 4 will fall away, and the remaining 2 will be promoted. I have no idea which 2 will fall. It could be any of us.

Secondary concern is if we are still in it with say 10 games to go, the pressure cranks up. And they are young. Will they crack, or will the naivety/arrogance of youth work to their favour.
« Last Edit: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:21:54 by Batch » Logged
suttonred

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« Reply #146 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:24:15 »

I still reckon 2 of the 4 will fall away, and the remaining 2 will be promoted. I have no idea which 2 will fall. It could be any of us.

Secondary concern is if we are still in it with say 10 games to go, the pressure cranks up. And they are young. Will they crack, or will the naivety/arrogance of youth work to their favour.

Yeah that's the key, I can see all 4 still in a group and it going to the last game or 2, at least we have an easy finish....
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Batch
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« Reply #147 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:25:55 »

at least we have an easy finish....

Based on results this season, isn't that a bad thing?!
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pauld
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« Reply #148 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:26:36 »

I'm very uncomfortable with all the promotion talk. I'm heroically fighting against the thought that we could be playing Championship football next season and trying to keep my expectations at their usual, rather low, level. I've just got this feeling that, as soon I really start believing, it's all going to turn to shit.
That's me too. I did allow myself a quick dance round the kitchen and singing of "We are top of the League" on Monday, but by and large I'm trying to ignore the table and just enjoy watching the football. I'll (probably/hopefully) be doing enough worrying about the table in March/April, if I start that now, I'll be a wreck before the Easter eggs are even in the shops
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suttonred

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« Reply #149 on: Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 13:28:24 »

Based on results this season, isn't that a bad thing?!

I was being ironic, we have a very hard finish iirc.
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