Scottish Independence

[Ardiles]

I've been following this debate closely, for personal reasons.  I know it's not of much interest to many down here - and, sure enough, independence wouldn't have the same effect on people down here - but the changes would nevertheless be far reaching.

Reason for starting this thread is that I sense a shift.  I'm broadly in the 'Better Together' camp, but that said I've been shocked at just how negative the Better Together campaign has been.  Instead of stressing the common ground: family ties, common cultural reference points, shared history etc., all I'm hearing from the Better Together campaign is scare story after scare story about what might happen if Scotland goes it alone.  It's really pissing a lot of people up there off.  The campaign strategy is fucked.

Pains me to say it, but the grass roots campaign on the Yes side is winning hands down, both in terms of its message and the numbers of people getting involved.  There are still questions to answer (not least on currency etc.), but they're winning the popular battle - and for the first time, I'm starting to think that the Yes side might win this.  The Better Together campaign is really going to have to up its game.

[inept and tiresome]

Local meetings can generate into shouting and abuse in the isle of Bute area. So I've been told by my cousin who moved there 15 years ago.
They also agree with what you say about the better together campaign.
The one thing you cannot allow is the Tories going North and preaching to the Scots after what Thatcher did to them. Long memories and all that.

[kerry red]

Maybe the Scots should have a close look at what's happened in Wales since they had their measure of independence.

Their Labour run assembly has returned them to huge waiting times for hospital admissions with their NHS Trusts behaving like Stafford.

They have slumped down the league table in education and there is the curious 'law' that any new homes built must have a £3000 sprinkler system installed.

On a personal level I would be glad to see them get their independence - but if I were Scottish I'd be shitting myself

[janaage]

I've been following this debate closely, for personal reasons.  I know it's not of much interest to many down here - and, sure enough, independence wouldn't have the same effect on people down here - but the changes would nevertheless be far reaching.

Reason for starting this thread is that I sense a shift.  I'm broadly in the 'Better Together' camp, but that said I've been shocked at just how negative the Better Together campaign has been.  Instead of stressing the common ground: family ties, common cultural reference points, shared history etc., all I'm hearing from the Better Together campaign is scare story after scare story about what might happen if Scotland goes it alone.  It's really pissing a lot of people up there off.  The campaign strategy is fucked.

Pains me to say it, but the grass roots campaign on the Yes side is winning hands down, both in terms of its message and the numbers of people getting involved.  There are still questions to answer (not least on currency etc.), but they're winning the popular battle - and for the first time, I'm starting to think that the Yes side might win this.  The Better Together campaign is really going to have to up its game.

First sensible post on the subject this site has seen.

Said for a long while that the no campaign are fucking their message up. The 'yessers' are doing a great job in their work, their points are positive and they take time to try educate people rather than preach.

Have to say most of my family in the borders are no's, all but one and he's a jambo so not sure if his vote counts or not ;-).

Going to be an interesting few months.

[ExiledEric]

I'm a Park North boy living in East Lothian for the last 20 years so pretty close to me as well.  One of my "yes" supporting mates summed it up by saying that no country has ever had everything cast in stone before becoming independent but that no country has ever wanted to go back after independence.  That said, I think he's wrong.  The "yes" campaign are making far too many assumptions about the Pound, EU membership being a "given", potentially defaulting on Scotland's share of UK debt, oil revenues and you could go on.  Potential job losses in key sectors such as finance could be massive and are unlikely to be offset by incoming investment.

I also detect that the "yes" campaign is gaining momentum and that the "better together" campaign is far too negative.  Cameron making his key speech from London was a howler of a mistake and a pr disaster.  As someone who actually lives in Scotland I'm really starting to fear that there will be a "yes" vote but hopefully I'm wrong..

[Cookie]

I'm supportive so I have a somewhere to go too when the Tories have finished fucking us up.

[leefer]

If the Scots vote for independance then independance is what it should be,which means

There own armed forces...why should a UK force protect them if they don't want to be part of the UK.

Also there own health service....the English have propped it up for to long.

Disgusting that the poor and ill English people pay for there medicine but the Scots and Welsh do not.

A broader view has me thinking it will be a no vote anyway.

[chalkies_shorts]

Its interesting to see Salmond think he can totally dictate the terms in which Scotland depart as if it doesn't affect the British economy - eg if they don't get the pound they won't take on any national debt.
If I was Scottish I'd be voting no. I would be very, very scared about taking the independence step. Braveheart and reality may be two very different things.

[Not that Nice If I'm Honest]

The Scots will never vote yes in a million years.
They like to talk independence, but when it comes to it, they will bottle it.

They talk with their hearts and vote with their wallets.

I regularly work in Scotland, and I am growing ever more weary of the thinly veiled hatred (often not veiled at all) most of them have for England

"I hate England and the English...........but you're OK, nothing personal" is typical of the sort of comments.

When I point out that in that case they should vote yes, most of them say no chance, because they will be worse off.

I really, really wish they vote yes and go it alone
It will be interesting to see if they still blame us for everything when it all goes tits up

[ExiledEric]

Problem is that Salmond is vaguely charismatic/interesting.  The Scottish "yes" figureheads aren't.

His assertion that Scotland will default on its debt is laughable but he's actually serious.  It's usually followed by a claim that RBS 's problems were entirely caused in London and are nothing to do with the Scots, that Europe is going to welcome an independent Scotland without any preconditions etc all of which are based on hope rather than fact.  The yes campaign completely overlook the fact that there is a UK election in 2017 and their expectations that London would simply roll over in the event of. "Yes" vote are wrong.  It would be political suicide for a London government to do so.

Chalkies is spot on when he says that braveheart and reality are very different.  Nice Bloke Really has a point in that there may well be people up here who claim they will (or have) voted yes but in reality bottle it.  But at the same time you have those who actually do believe that they will be better off in an independent scotland.  Sad but true.

[Peter Venkman]

If the Scots vote for independance then independance is what it should be,which means

There own armed forces...why should a UK force protect them if they don't want to be part of the UK.

Also there own health service....the English have propped it up for to long.

Disgusting that the poor and ill English people pay for there medicine but the Scots and Welsh do not.

A broader view has me thinking it will be a no vote anyway.

This is pretty much how I feel.

Having spent 4 months in Edinburgh last year I have seen both sides of this argument close up.

Yes a lot of Scots hate the English, in spirit, but in actual fact they don't really hate us at all and are a very generous nation. They love to moan about everything, that is just how they do things and moaning about the English is something they do very very well.

Of the people I spoke to they were about 90% in favour of the yes vote because the yes campainers have done a great job in selling it to the nation of Scotland.

In actual fact a lot of this comes down to the fact that they don't want the Tories in charge of their country, they consider them to be public school educated toffs who do not care about Scotland.....this is actually true.....but they seem to forget that these toffs in government dont give a shit about anything outside of the home counties of London.

I am concerned they think they will still be part of the UK armed forces etc, still want all the benefits of the UK government like the Pound.

They can't have it as it is British, and they choose to not be part of Britain then they cannot hope to keep the pound and all the underpinning of the economy that it does bring.

Also Scotland per head of the population have an annual spend per person in Scotland is currently over £10,200 compared to England spending of £8,300 per person.

Where is this extra funding coming from? Gas and Oil will not cover anywhere near that shortfall, but it will also stop the English subsidising the Scots so maybe the average spend will go up for the English? no of course it won't but we will no longer be subsidising the Scottish free healthcare, free dentistry and free University places....who will pay for that? we don't get it now so why should the Scots expect us to fund it?

For that reason I am in the Yes camp, from an English point of view, yes its very simlplistic but if it comes down to money, which all government issues and problems come down to eventually then we as a nation can't be worse off than we are now.

[Reg Smeeton]

I'm supportive so I have a somewhere to go too when the Tories have finished fucking us up.

Nationalism is a nasty right wing ideology, which tends to bring out the worst in people....and the Sweaties have got an unpleasant sectarian divide which could erupt.  But fair play to Salmond he's made it pretty clear that an independent Scotland would need some significant immigration to make it viable, so you'd be welcomed by the state, not sure about the people.

I've posted many times that I think the Sweaties have to go for this, and it opens up all sorts of fun possibilities....the first of which is Cameron being labelled as the man who broke the Union...him being the leader of the Conservative and Unionist party.

I'd expect a wave of English nationalism to follow, leading to a withdraw vote on the EU...which leads to the scenario of England going out and the Sweaties trying to go in... and join the Euro, have to accept Schengen etc.

What happens to Trident, though will be thing that causes most fun.....essentially the Sweaties don't want it...so where can we house these beasts in England? I'm not sure there is anywhere.

Uncle Sam won't be best pleased by this, but maybe England will apply to become the 51st State to cheer him up.

[theakston2k]

My mum's side of the family are from Aberdeen and they'll all be voting no as they can see the bigger picture.

In the grand scheme of things Scotland offer very little on their own and you've already got large companies saying they'll pull out of Scotland if they do go independent.

If the vote is yes though it needs to be full independence, no pound (despite Salmond's claim it's as much there's as ours), no access to the NHS, no support from our armed forces, cut-off from the national grid unless they pay us for any cross border power (which they will have to as they want to shut Torness & Hunterston nuclear power stations) and in addition they do get their share of the national debt. They will have a substantial funding deficit so you wonder how long they can actually survive. What sort of credit rating they will be given by the world bank as this will ultimately impact on the amount of money they can borrow to prop themselves up. I think the days of free prescriptions will rapidly disappear!

Finally Salmond seems to think they will just be accepted into the EU, can't see that happening. They'll need to apply and wait like the likes of Bulgaria and Romania. This could kill them before their 'independence' even starts as it'll really harm their ability to do business on the international stage.

[fatbasher]

This is pretty much how I feel.

Having spent 4 months in Edinburgh last year I have seen both sides of this argument close up.

Yes a lot of Scots hate the English, in spirit, but in actual fact they don't really hate us at all and are a very generous nation. They love to moan about everything, that is just how they do things and moaning about the English is something they do very very well.

Of the people I spoke to they were about 90% in favour of the yes vote because the yes campainers have done a great job in selling it to the nation of Scotland.

In actual fact a lot of this comes down to the fact that they don't want the Tories in charge of their country, they consider them to be public school educated toffs who do not care about Scotland.....this is actually true.....but they seem to forget that these toffs in government dont give a shit about anything outside of the home counties of London.

I am concerned they think they will still be part of the UK armed forces etc, still want all the benefits of the UK government like the Pound.

They can't have it as it is British, and they choose to not be part of Britain then they cannot hope to keep the pound and all the underpinning of the economy that it does bring.

Also Scotland per head of the population have an annual spend per person in Scotland is currently over £10,200 compared to England spending of £8,300 per person.

Where is this extra funding coming from? Gas and Oil will not cover anywhere near that shortfall, but it will also stop the English subsidising the Scots so maybe the average spend will go up for the English? no of course it won't but we will no longer be subsidising the Scottish free healthcare, free dentistry and free University places....who will pay for that? we don't get it now so why should the Scots expect us to fund it?

For that reason I am in the Yes camp, from an English point of view, yes its very simlplistic but if it comes down to money, which all government issues and problems come down to eventually then we as a nation can't be worse off than we are now.

And we'll be £53,000,000 per day better off when we withdraw from the EU. Plus any punitive "fines" imposed for not toeing the line on the reams and reams of legislation churned out daily. Before anyone drones on about job losses etc if we withdraw, that's a load of bollocks (similar to your employer droning on about how good the job is you have and constantly putting doubt into your mind that it's better to stay where you are as the grass is not greener outside) Really? Really? Bollocks, utter bollocks. As i have said before the EU rely heavily on exports to the UK and they'll be cutting off their noses to spite their faces if they install trade tarrifs to us. And regarding jobs, our flexible labour and business friendly legislation is the reason why (not withstanding the only decent labour policy of staying out the Euro, mainly due to Brown and Bliar hating each other) standing us in good stead to soapy tit wank at the over regulated and inflexible working legislation of our continental cousins. Scotland go, slap us in the face, no worries but you'll be strangled by Europe and kow towing at everything they say and ask you to do to keep you in the manor of which you have become acustomed too.

I personally think they will stay, narrowly but stay none the less and i welcome that.  

[Ardiles]

A narrow vote - either way - is what I would fear most as a Scot.  The legacy of the vote could be a Scotland bitterly divided against itself.

A lot of Reg's scenarios ringing true for me as well...where as just a short while ago I'd have dismissed them as fanciful.