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Author Topic: Scunthorpe United FC v Swindon Town FC Official Matchday Thread  (Read 40058 times)
dalumpimunki

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« Reply #315 on: Monday, April 29, 2013, 22:48:51 »

Stevenage were not just 'ropey old shite' at the beginning of the season who were only at the top because of some astonishingly fortunate run of games against teams at the bottom.

They played and beat Walsall, Yeovil, Franchise and Leyton Orient in that period (all top teams according to a system that ranks by final league position) and also played and drew against Doncaster, Bournemouth and Tranmere to get to 2nd place in the first half of the season, before a terrible collapse in form in the second half when they lost to the likes of Bury, Carlisle, Scunthorpe, Oldham and Colchester (some of the poorest teams according to a system that ranks by final league position).

Bournemouth, Yeovil, Walsall, and Leyton Orient meanwhile really were 'ropey old shite' at the bottom of the table when we played them first time around but by diametrical contrast all had a drastic turnaround in form for the second time we played them and ended up finishing near the top.

Saying that beating those teams in the first part of the season is commensurate to beating them in the second half of the season based on a blind reading of their end league position is not just an oversimplification of the reality of how good or bad those teams were at different points in the season but a logical fallacy that makes for a very unfair comparison.

In fact it would be making almost exactly the same logical fallacy that trying to make a blind comparison between the PPG of Di Canio and Kmac without considering the extraneous circumstances of the resources they had available would be making: assuming that two teams in two different times and places were of equal ability and skill.

Too Cool

You need to pick a line of argument and stick to it. You can't in the same post argue that Stevenage were a good side early in the season because they beat Orient, Yeovil, MK and Walsall, and then a paragraph later argue that Yeovil, Orient and Walsall were all shit early in the season.

I'm not attempting to argue that teams don't have changes in form over the course of the season, and that there are times to play them when they represent more of a challenge. I just have no idea how you would factor that into any sort of a comparison of performance. Because league position alone, when you're comparing early season with late season form just isn't a good measure.

The only way I can tell how good a side is is by seeing them play a few times against a range of opposition, or by looking at a league table at the end of a season.
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BruceChatwin

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« Reply #316 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 01:11:31 »

I wasn't arguing Stevenage were a good side early on in the season because they beat Orient, Yeovil, Franchise and Walsall. I was arguing by a system you've been advocating (which I consider erroneous) that ranks the quality of opposition primarily by final league position all those teams they beat WOULD very much be considered 'decent,' in response to your quote:

quite of lot of ropey old shite (that got found out as soon as they played anyone decent) was in the top 6 in those months (yes Stevenage I am looking at you).

They didn't get 'found out' as soon as they played anyone decent. They played good teams in that period and matched or bettered them. Then they went on a horrible run of form during which they lost without prejudice to relative form or league position.

The reality is Stevenage were one of the best teams in the division at the time we faced them in the season, irrespective of the pains we could go to to diminish their quality retrospectively by quoting out of context the end result of their subsequent dip in form, and Bournemouth were one of the worst teams in the division at the time we faced them, irrespective of the pains we could also go to to rate them retrospectively as one of the best due to eventually finishing 2nd.

There's a chance (as with last time we discussed statistics) that we're both arguing almost the same thing again: that a direct statistical comparison of the two regimes requires such a nebulous effort of contrivance as to make it almost utterly redundant. But as with last time, I can't see the worth in attempting to fight redundant statistical analysis with further redundant statistical analysis.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #317 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 07:38:15 »

Yes loads changed we all know that. Even with all those changes PDC would have got better results. I will not apologise for rating him.

He got a fucking good result last night didn't he?
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horlock07

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« Reply #318 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 11:27:57 »

Yes loads changed we all know that. Even with all those changes PDC would have got better results. I will not apologise for rating him.

But KMac would have got better results that PdC if he had been in charge at the start of the season.

I have no reason to believe this, but its as provable as your statement.

I loved PdC until about November, then he turned into a stroppy five year old who was very obviously acting for himself and not the wider good of the club and after that I was very meh.

Anyway I just don't get the love in about a man who took us to the brink of admin and then walked out at the first available opportunity when it looked like someone was going to take his toys away. Jed and co (who I am still extremely wary of - where are the answers Jedders?) are alleged to have taken £200k out of the club and there is uproar, Di Canio and Spencer take possibly at least double that and he is the best thing we ever had.
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tans
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« Reply #319 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 11:52:47 »

But KMac would have got better results that PdC if he had been in charge at the start of the season.

I have no reason to believe this, but its as provable as your statement.

I loved PdC until about November, then he turned into a stroppy five year old who was very obviously acting for himself and not the wider good of the club and after that I was very meh.

Anyway I just don't get the love in about a man who took us to the brink of admin and then walked out at the first available opportunity when it looked like someone was going to take his toys away. Jed and co (who I am still extremely wary of - where are the answers Jedders?) are alleged to have taken £200k out of the club and there is uproar, Di Canio and Spencer take possibly at least double that and he is the best thing we ever had.

Couldnt have put it better myself.
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stfctownenda

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« Reply #320 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 12:02:24 »

But KMac would have got better results that PdC if he had been in charge at the start of the season.

I have no reason to believe this, but its as provable as your statement.

I loved PdC until about November, then he turned into a stroppy five year old who was very obviously acting for himself and not the wider good of the club and after that I was very meh.

Anyway I just don't get the love in about a man who took us to the brink of admin and then walked out at the first available opportunity when it looked like someone was going to take his toys away. Jed and co (who I am still extremely wary of - where are the answers Jedders?) are alleged to have taken £200k out of the club and there is uproar, Di Canio and Spencer take possibly at least double that and he is the best thing we ever had.

Completely agree with this, very well put sir.
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Batch
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« Reply #321 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 13:03:49 »

There is a difference between board sanctioned spending on the understanding a benefactor is payrolling it, and alleged self sanctioned spending against what appear to be a backdrop of cash tight times. Particularly when it is alleged one of the spends is to a consultancy that is linked to a board member.

I should point out in interests of the TEF the allegations were denied in the strongest possibly worded tweets of 140 characters or fewer.

Black took us close to administration, Paolo spent what he could. That's not his fault. he is a total und utter ladies front bottom for walking away when he did though.

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mrverve

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« Reply #322 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 13:42:26 »

Paolo and Spencer spent way too much on players but every manager if they had the chance would do exactly the same. Look at Redknapp at Pompey, Storey and Gydamek didn't put a stop to it until it was too late, the people at the top are the people ultimately responsible.

If it wasn't for Black we wouldn't be in League 1 and in the play offs, if he decided to walk in 2011 after we got relegated fuck knows where we'd be now but a part of me will always think where we'd be if he just hung on a few months until the end of the season.
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RedRag

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« Reply #323 on: Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 20:21:05 »

He got a fucking good result last night didn't he?

No but 1.5pts per game against Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle and Everton ain't too shabby.

I'd be very pleased if KMac's next job is managing a premiership club (not its under 14s) - but hopefully he won't have to move on to achieve this.
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