Ground re-development ????

[DiV]

I was under the impression (rightly or wrong) that area behind the DRS and the Cricket Club have to remain 'green space' so we couldnt build, lets say shit load of houses on there like a certain someone suggested.

[Ardiles]

I did some analysis of our attendances over the last 30 years or so a while back, it wasn't very encouraging to be honest. I'd say that even in The Championship we'd only average 12k at maximum but that is to a degree limited by our current capacity and layout. A staggered approach makes sense. Rebuild the Town End and then see what happens. If attendances go up or we become stable in The Championship then we can expand further. At minimum you probably want plans to be able to hit 25k.

But it's difficult to see how you even hit 20k with room for expansion with the current ground. Doing the Town End and Arkells will probably get you near to 20k but where do you go from there? Filling in the corners will add maybe another 2k but then it's down to the Stratton Bank which is problematic to say the least. Unless they buy and demolish the block of 12 houses behind it. Same to a lesser degree with the Arkells, you're really looking at the cricket pitch going if you make it any bigger.

Two points there.

1.  Attendances have gone up in general during the period you looked at (the last 30 years), which limits the value of a historical analysis like that.  While our attendances were hitting rock bottom in the early 1980s, so were those of many other, more successful clubs.  To illustrate, here are the Division 1 average attendance stats for 1981/82.  Only 8 teams in the top division were averaging over 20,000.

 1 Manchester United                             41,695
 2 Liverpool                                          34,758
 3 Tottenham Hotpsur                            30,581
 4 Manchester City                                26,789
 5 Arsenal                                            24,153
 6 Aston Villa                                        23,748
 7 West Ham United                               22,822
 8 Everton                                           20,277
 9 Ipswich Town                                   19,503
10 Watford                                          19,488
11 Southampton                                   18,799
12 Nottingham Forest                            17,851
13 Sunderland                                     17,370
14 Norwich City                                   16,862
15 Stoke City                                      16,622
16 Birmingham City                               15,638
17 West Bromwich Albion                       15,200
18 Brighton & Hove Albion                      14,662
19 Luton Town                                    13,452
20 Swansea City                                  11,704
21 Coventry City                                 10,552
22 Notts County                                  10,265

   Total                                              20,127

2.  The analysis also ignores the boost to attendances that good, off the field management can provide when taken together with a ground (re)development.  How, for example, would a similar analysis have looked for Brighton, Swansea or Reading over the same period?  I'm not suggesting that we should build a white elephant, but your conclusion (12,000 average in the Championship) does feel very light to me in the light of experience elsewhere...unless there is something fundamentally different about these clubs to ours, and I'm not sure really that there is.

[jonny72]

I took those factors in to account when I plucked my figure of 12k out of the air.

Our attendances were all over the place which just confirms the fact that they are down to a mixture of; the division, performances on the pitch, pricing and the feel good factor. As an example; our attendances last season were 21% higher than the season we were last relegated from The Championship. Loads more strange statistics like that in there.

Attendances in The Championship started rising in the 96/7 season having been stable for around 15 years. However our attendances over the last four seasons we were in The Championship (96/00) didn't rise in line with the increases and were around a third lower than the league average during that period having been a lot closer to it previously.

The other thing is our capacity (actually about 14.5k I think?) and to a lesser degree the layout. We can't take advantage of the games that would attract a far higher attendance (I reckon there are a good few teams in The Championship that we'd get 20k plus for if we had the seats) and we'd suffer with the teams that didn't bring many away fans.

So I stand by the 12k (with our current ground, in case I didn't make that clear enough). Obviously a ground redevelopment could change this but I'm not sure there is any real guarantees - Brighton, Reading and Swansea have all had major successes on the pitch to go with their new grounds. I do think going for a 20k capacity is the way to go though.

[Ardiles]

So I stand by the 12k (with our current ground, in case I didn't make that clear enough). Obviously a ground redevelopment could change this but I'm not sure there is any real guarantees - Brighton, Reading and Swansea have all had major successes on the pitch to go with their new grounds. I do think going for a 20k capacity is the way to go though.

OK, that was the piece I missed.  I agree that without any ground redevelopment or significant changes off the field of play (which almost always go hand in hand), the 12,000 figure would probably be about right.  But where we go from here, as mentioned earlier in the thread, really does depend now on how the Board takes the Club forward from here.

I think we're now ripe for a step change in the same way that the other clubs mentioned have managed...but in order to achieve this, you have to do the redevelopment right.  Oxford are often held up (not least by us) as an example of a club that botched their development opportunity (although, to be fair to them, their options were very limited and Kassam has subsequently demonstrated that he hardly had their best interests at heart.)  But even they have achieved something of an attendance bounce when compared with their days at the Manor Ground, albeit much more modest.

[Reg Smeeton]

This is STFC.....I only believe it when I see it, touch it and taste it........window licker flash!

Very wise words...the driver for redevelopment is the behind the scenes stuff anyway. Our bit although important to us is secondary in the bigger picture. In the present double dip recession what could be built that would be an economic driver?

[fatbasher]

The problem with building backwards into the carpark at the Townend has long been that the council run the car park so would not take too kindly to us building over its resource, after all on matchdays it generated a lot for income for the council.

If we owned the land and the ground then it is the obvious way forward but it was also basically remove all parking at the stadium itself, which I don't think the council would allow or be very happy about.

Currently the council have and pretty much always has had the upper hand.

A large home end similar in height to the DRS/Intel would be awesome but it would not hold 5,000 as the DRS does now, it would more than likely hold about 4,000 due to the narrower width of area taken up (approx 120 yards vs 90 yards).

That said its still 1,500 more than the Townend holds now and would be sufficient for us with a similar stand at the Stratton Bank holding a similar amount making in overall capacity of around 18,000 with the possibility of building in the corners if demand ever became high enough, but in all honesty 18,000 is perfectly adequate for us for the next few years at least.

Its just going to be difficult getting anything passed by the council as it always has been.

STFC lease the car park from SBC on matchdays and keep the revenue. They do however pay a princely sum for it. Circa £35-45k per season. NW told me personally. I'm sure the figure was about £35k and that was three years ago. so everyone is a winner. As has been pointed out the only time it's full is on matchdays and when the pikey's set up their fairground rides occasionally.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

I've always wondered why our attendences were so shockingly bad during the 80s before Macari took over. Obviously being shit doens't help, but they really were appalling. Those figures show it wasn't just us!

The only logical reason I can think of is recession? Can anyone else share any further light?

[leefer]

I've always wondered why our attendences were so shockingly bad during the 80s before Macari took over. Obviously being shit doens't help, but they really were appalling. Those figures show it wasn't just us!

The only logical reason I can think of is recession? Can anyone else share any further light?

Football hooligans...families stayed away...facilities were piss poor.
But probably the biggest factor was that the old fashioned communities were waring away....ie the Railway works in Swindon and many other towns with industrial backgrounds...docks maybe or pits.
The whole town used to watch the club in the sixties.....that went with the decline of the Railworks...or inside as they used to call it.

[Reg Smeeton]

I've always wondered why our attendences were so shockingly bad during the 80s before Macari took over. Obviously being shit doens't help, but they really were appalling. Those figures show it wasn't just us!

The only logical reason I can think of is recession? Can anyone else share any further light?

Our attendances nose dived from the early mid seventies, due to a mixture of economic recession, brought about by the Opec oil embargo, crowd trouble, and terrible football.  But by the end of that decade we could still pull 20,000+ into the CG for a big cup game.

This downward spiral dragged on into the Thatcherite 80's, when football fans were seen as part of the "enemy within". TBF the importance of trouble should not be underestimated, as going to certain matches at this time, could be a bit of a health hazard.

A random stat which sticks in my head, was a visit to Elm Park circa 81/82, when there were 41 arrests in a crowd of 4100 exactly 1% of the crowd...probably don't get 41 in a season now at the CG.

The turning point started before Italia 90 and the Taylor Report in a way...with the Fanzine movement, which showed that people with half a brain and some writing talent could get some enjoyment from football, without resorting to the need to crack people over the head with iron bars.

[Ardiles]

Before my time, so take this with a pinch of salt...but the nadir was a few years after 1981/82 with Heysel, Hillsborough and Bradford.  All very different tragedies, but they shook the football world to its senses.  Yes, the legacy is a more sterile game - but it's also more attractive and welcoming to swathes of people who never before would have dreamed of going to football.  It's very sad that it took tragedies like these for change to happen.  As Reg points out, football in the early 1980s and in the late 1980s were very different things.

[mexico red]

dont agree ardiles it took until mid nineties for all that to kick in, late 80s werent much different from early 80s

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

Being only 23 it's obviously before my time and I was very young at the time...but things seemed to skyrocket after Euro 96 compared to before.

[Iffy's Onion Bhaji]

You also have to remember that in the 80s crowd trouble and hooliganism were rife. That probably put a lot of people off.

[leefer]

STFC in Bournemouth wont agree but i think Sky has helped to bring back the masses also....seems strange especially in the early days when a crowd was lower when Sky was in attendance...but i think as the years have rolled on they brought a bit of glamour into footy which wasnt around in the 70's and 80,s.

[jonny72]

Don't think you can attribute the changes in attendances to any single events. They peaked (for English football as a whole) in 1949 and then went on a pretty consistent downward spiral until 1986, after which they have been on a pretty consistent upwards spiral. Not sure as to why the turn around begun in 1986 though.