timmyg
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« on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 10:38:28 » |
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So there are 3 doors, lets say A, B and C.
Behind one of the doors there is a car.
Once you have chosen your door (but not opened it) ONE of the other doors that definately doesn't have the car behind it is removed.
You now have the option to STAY WITH YOUR ORIGINAL SELECTION or CHANGE TO THE OTHER REMAINING DOOR.
What do you do?
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never trust a nun...
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RobertT
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« Reply #1 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 10:43:09 » |
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May as well stick, the removal of the door without makes no odds to your original choice.
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Amir
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« Reply #2 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 10:53:07 » |
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That's the thing though it does. I can't remember why or how though.
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McLovin
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« Reply #3 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 10:59:08 » |
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This is like deal or no deal. I'd stick. I'd rather have made the wrong choice all along, that have made the right one and thrown it away.
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timmyg
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« Reply #4 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 11:01:35 » |
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I saw Deal or No Deal when I was back home at Easter. I missed the start though. Is it the same as this? Do they choose one box at the start?
Surely you would always swap If you chose one at the start then you've only got a 1/3 chance of it bein right (in the doors I mean).
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never trust a nun...
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McLovin
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« Reply #5 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 11:17:38 » |
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Yeah, they choose one at the start. I know what you're saying about odds, but my head wouldn't work like that...
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timmyg
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« Reply #6 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 11:21:40 » |
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But you've got a little chance of getting it right at the start. 1/3 in fact. So that means that there is 2/3 chance that you've got it wrong. So you should swap.
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never trust a nun...
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timmyg
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« Reply #7 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 11:24:29 » |
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How many boxes are there in Deal or No Deal? 20? You've got a 1/20 chance of getting it right and you'd stick? there's a 19/20 chance that it's NOTin your box. I understand that you'd rahter be wrong than be right and throw it away (and that could happen) but statistically you've got a very small chance of being right...
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never trust a nun...
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STFC Village
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« Reply #8 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 11:51:05 » |
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22 boxes. As DB says, i'd stick with my original choice
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RobertT
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« Reply #9 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 12:01:28 » |
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Got my head around the maths, and statistically speak you have better odds by changing your choice. I'm still not 100% convinced, and by trying it a lot of times I got less than 2/3 when switching, closer to 1/2. However, by staying it was closer to 1/3 than 1/2.
However, in the original example of this questions (a game show) there would have been more to influence the decision than straight maths.
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flammableBen
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« Reply #10 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 12:52:22 » |
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Got my head around the maths, and statistically speak you have better odds by changing your choice. I'm still not 100% convinced, and by trying it a lot of times I got less than 2/3 when switching, closer to 1/2. However, by staying it was closer to 1/3 than 1/2.
However, in the original example of this questions (a game show) there would have been more to influence the decision than straight maths. Yeah you should change. Can't remember the maths off the top of my head. Sure if you look about on tinternet then there are plently of example. Never really thought about how it would affect deal or no deal. |
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RobertT
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« Reply #11 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 12:56:00 » |
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Got my head around the maths, and statistically speak you have better odds by changing your choice. I'm still not 100% convinced, and by trying it a lot of times I got less than 2/3 when switching, closer to 1/2. However, by staying it was closer to 1/3 than 1/2.
However, in the original example of this questions (a game show) there would have been more to influence the decision than straight maths. Yeah you should change. Can't remember the maths off the top of my head. Sure if you look about on tinternet then there are plently of example. Never really thought about how it would affect deal or no deal. As I understand it, the answer for Deal or No Deal, was to switch off and watch something a little less shit |
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flammableBen
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« Reply #12 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 13:00:10 » |
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Ok let's look at a diagram
Right ---- Stay Right
1/3
\_____ Change Wrong
Wrong ----- Stay wrong
2/3
\______ Change right
The only way you can be right if you can stay is if you pick the right one at the start (1/3), however if you're wrong at the start because (2/3) because the other wrong one will be removed you will always be right if you change.
So because you're more likely to have been wrong than right at the start you should change. Meh.
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Simon Pieman
Original Wanker
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« Reply #13 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 14:01:01 » |
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This is termed the 'Monty Hall Problem' in maths circles; I did it in my first year of uni.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark
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Absolute Calamity!
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« Reply #14 on: Wednesday, May 10, 2006, 14:38:29 » |
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I'm still not 100% convinced, and by trying it a lot of times I got less than 2/3 when switching, closer to 1/2. However, by staying it was closer to 1/3 than 1/2. You tried it out? With actual doors and a car? You must have got some funny looks at work. |
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