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Swindon Town FC => Players => Topic started by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:37:50



Title: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:37:50
This comment:

I challenge you to find a better % win record than Dunne. I'm talking league games here.  Once upon a time people used to think I was a statto, but I'm not. However if you want to put in the effort, I'll listen. While you're at it could you find out about the rules for re-arranged fixtures?

Got me thinking. Has Dunne got a good win percentage? Is this team good on paper? I like stats and I like cocking about with excel, so I compiled all the player stats for the season into a spreadsheet. I used the ever fantastic http://swindon-town-fc.co.uk/ (http://swindon-town-fc.co.uk/), and I included league games only. Does anyone have a good source for assists? If so, I'll add them too.

Here's the data: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1YTgab65oTrmM2ScmFKCBKge1jsuZnVQN

Some surprising results in there, McDermott and Matt Taylor have some horrific numbers. Goddard is right up there though, and we've definitely missed Hussey.

For those not of a technical bent, I've included the data as a picture. It's sorted by overall win percentage. Enjoy.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:39:50
Oh, and I compiled the data manually, so if anyone spots a mistake let me know and I'll correct it. #GarethGillman


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Tails on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:43:08
Think there's a mistake with Goddard. 8 starts but you only have 5 wins and 2 defeats in his starting XI section


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:43:41
Will double check, cheers


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Batch on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:43:47
So if we start Dunne, Purkiss and Elsnik as subs we'll win the league :)


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Tails on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:48:10
Not sure how great this is but has some data on assists

www.espnfc.co.uk/club/swindon-town/341/statistics/assists


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Reg Smeeton on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:50:56
Oh, and I compiled the data manually, so if anyone spots a mistake let me know and I'll correct it. #GarethGillman

Where's Gareth gone?  Can we have him back, please?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 11:51:53
Think there's a mistake with Goddard. 8 starts but you only have 5 wins and 2 defeats in his starting XI section

Original post updated - Goddard is now joint top for win percentage


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Panda Paws on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:00:49
I miss Hussey. The set-piece ability of Taylor but with the defensive and physical attributes of a normal-aged footballer.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:06:33
Where is he? Has he gone Milan Missing?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Panda Paws on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:07:17
Hernia op - 2-3 weeks apparently, but it's been 2-3 weeks since October.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Reg Smeeton on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:09:31
I miss Hussey. The set-piece ability of Taylor but with the defensive and physical attributes of a normal-aged footballer.

Early doors he looked our best player.

So given that JG has gone... Dunne is only bettered by Chris Robertson.  Perhaps Bambi's question should be "why doesn't Robbo start more often?"



Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:14:12
Robertson's stats are bolstered by some very late substitute appearances, 2 wins where he came on at 90 mins. Take those two away and he comes in at just under 55% - still good, but not stand out. That's the danger of having such a small sample size.

I think stats bear out that Dunne is our most successful player this season, closely followed by Norris. It might not be what people want to see, but I imagine that's why Flitcroft keeps picking them.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: horlock07 on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:24:45
Interesting stuff, based on his interests I cannot wait for the

Eastern European Lasses - inspired by Reg thread!  ;)


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: pauld on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:27:53
Robertson's stats are bolstered by some very late substitute appearances, 2 wins where he came on at 90 mins. Take those two away and he comes in at just under 55% - still good, but not stand out. That's the danger of having such a small sample size.
Maybe points per minutes played might be a better stat to judge on than wins per appearance?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Reg Smeeton on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:33:17
Interesting stuff, based on his interests I cannot wait for the

Eastern European Lasses - inspired by Reg thread!  ;)

There should be some interesting ones kicking around in the Winter Olympics.... might even be a few Russian biathletes, and I don't mean bi in that sense  :)


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:33:41
Maybe points per minutes played might be a better stat to judge on than wins per appearance?

Be my guest :)


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: pauld on Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:35:51
Be my guest :)
Nah, you're all right thanks!


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: adje on Friday, February 9, 2018, 13:16:36
What's happened to mcdermott?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: pauld on Friday, February 9, 2018, 13:25:25
What's happened to mcdermott?
Waiting for an op IIRC


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: chalkies_shorts on Friday, February 9, 2018, 13:56:31
What's happened to mcdermott?
Probably still trying to remove his studs from the Barnet player he cowardly took out in a potentially leg breaking hissy fit.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: bamboonoshop on Friday, February 9, 2018, 19:07:11
Can't argue with those particular stats. My qualm was with Dunne's starting figures and more so the reason why the manager has actually started him. Although the percentage would be slightly lower it would probably still come out pretty favourable. Would be interested to see the "Loss - Win %" figures too (without draws seeing as we hardly draw). Also the SR would be a cool indicator on performance too e.g (I'm giving this one quick for ease) Brophy in his "Starting XI" at 2 is 50% winner but his loss rate is 0%. Effectively making him 100% successful when starting. However I'm not sure many would like to admit that as much as I don't like the Dunne stats.  There's a few shortcomings Jayo in the final few fields where the appearances don't add up. Quick look, says though that the % is correct against the real numbers (bold and underlined) as opposed to the initial numbers (bold). Easy mistake to make if indeed you entered them in manually.

Norris       26   14   3   8    =25
Hussey     10     5    1   3    =9
Preston     22   11   2   7    =20
Anderson  26   13   2   10   =25
Linganzi    21   10   2   8     =20

I've got time for anyone who goes to the length to bring up some statistical data off their own back. We know stats will never be flawless, likewise neither will our opinions. However the former does give us certain indicators and can help to obtain the correct decisions. My opinion of Dunne on the field may be maintained. While the sample may well indeed be small, it is all we've got to go on in this particular instance. His statistical analysis shows that for Swindon he comes out at the top end for "Win %", of which I cannot argue with.

Oh and Redbuck, the job has gone. Sorry.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Friday, February 9, 2018, 22:43:22
Yeah the percentages are worked out from the entered stats, I knew I would make mistakes it was quite a long and boring process :) Will correct it if I get time.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Exiled Bob on Friday, February 9, 2018, 22:45:30
....Brophy in his "Starting XI" at 2 is 50% winner but his loss rate is 0%. Effectively making him 100% successful when starting.
Eh?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: bamboonoshop on Friday, February 9, 2018, 23:38:06
Yeah the percentages are worked out from the entered stats, I knew I would make mistakes it was quite a long and boring process :) Will correct it if I get time.

As much as I love research and stats, I hear you! Bloody laborious. 


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: bamboonoshop on Friday, February 9, 2018, 23:52:25
Eh?

When Brophy started for us this season (which was twice) his data was W1 D1 L0. I used his for ease of reference. So while his "Win %" = 50%, his "Loss %" = 0%. Gaining points is seen as success as opposed to not gaining points, which is seen as a failure. Therefore in the games Brophy started (2), his success rate is 100%, as he didn't lose when he started.

It was just an example though. Not saying Brophy was that good though, on paper or otherwise.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Reg Smeeton on Saturday, February 10, 2018, 02:58:52
Gaining points is seen as success as opposed to not gaining points, which is seen as a failure. 

You need to see this in the context of recent history, where player development was superfluous to gaining points.

So for example, for most fans 15/16 would be viewed as a poor season whereas for Power the sale of Ajose for decent dollar, would represent a success.

Seeing as Jayo did the win ratio thing, could you find about the rules for re-arranged fixtures  :hmmm:


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: bamboonoshop on Saturday, February 10, 2018, 05:03:11
My response was relating to data, with regard to a player. Power's value of the player, for the purpose of this particular research is irrelevant. However, the fact we got a fee (remarkably) for Brophy, could mean that someone may have looked at his isolated "starting xi" data and thought it necessary  ;)

 I reiterate, it was purely an example for ease. No context needed. Gaining "points" (via apps:wins/draws) is a significant attribute to a players SR%. I think you're possibly confusing "points" with league points, whereas i'm talking about percentage points relating to a players data because this is a thread about statistical data...

 RE: Rearranged Fixtures. It's possibly tied to the TV/Commercial gods somewhere. Not that there is a massive market for a Tuesday night fixture between two forgotten (by others) L2 clubs. We could probably look at the same conundrum of the fixtures release list, that every year seems to throw up some rather bizarre combinations. Not even considering geographical reasoning either. My only other guess on the rearranging is that it would be scheduled as soon as and as practicable as possible. One would assume both teams would agree that they are available (ie don't have a fixture less than three days either side of proposed date) and that's regardless of whether it would create a run of three/four home/away fixtures

(*Edit: Check EFL 5.26.1&2, also covered in EFL 5.28)

 I think availability is key. Surely if you couldn't give valid reason for said availability then the club would be in breach of rules pertaining to; failure to fulfil fixtures obligations

(*Edit: Check EFL 5.31&32)


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Samdy Gray on Saturday, February 10, 2018, 09:33:19
Good effort, but you could've just used this:

http://swindon-town-fc.co.uk/StatAttack/PlayerSuccess.asp?Opposition=NO&Type=Most


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: jayohaitchenn on Saturday, February 10, 2018, 12:06:03
Oh didn't know about that, cheers Sam


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Samdy Gray on Saturday, February 10, 2018, 12:34:36
That website's so good, I think you could find just about any stat imaginable.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Tails on Thursday, March 29, 2018, 13:43:53
Despite the mistakes, RCC is 2nd in player success rate this season. Way ahead of Vigs! Moore is near the bottom too but he's possibly had the worst defence possible in front of him.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Bob's Orange on Thursday, March 29, 2018, 13:49:20
Mooreís kicking is on a par with Nicky Hammondís isnít it?


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: Peter Venkman on Thursday, March 29, 2018, 13:56:43
Moore certainly has the disadvantage of the current defence in front of him.

I think Moore and RCC are similar quality wise, both look poor at claiming crosses, both a little shakey kicking but both better than Vigs for distribution IMO.

Moore grew into Saturdays game after a shakey start but he does not fill me with confidence, his claiming of crosses is as bad as any keeper we have had but RCC is not far behind and then again thats not a strong point of Vigs game either.

I would personally give Henry a game but I don't think PB will do that.


Title: Re: Player stats this season - inspired by Reg
Post by: RobertT on Thursday, March 29, 2018, 14:48:24
Maybe give Norris a go?