Thetownend.com

Is the points needed for automatic promotion from this division finishing in 3rd place since 04/05 season to present.

07/08 was a freak season where Hereford finished 3rd on a very high 88 points.

04/05 Yeovil won the league with 83 points.

Where do we see this season panning out ? I reckon 85 points will clinch 3rd place.

At the rate we are going we're going to get more than that...and anyway we're going for the title.

Was just looking on the BBC football site at our fixture list. They don't have the missing Barnet away fixture on there yet but can't think of our other game in hand? I think on current form we should be winning 8 of our 10 remaining home games so that would be 82 points plus whatever we pick up away. 88 points or more is realistic.

So you think we will only pick up another 6 points away from home!!!

Don't be so pessimistic guys - we are in the zone this season. Difficult to see who is going to beat us - it's a crap division.

Undefeated for the remainder of the season and start thinking about promotion next season too

109 is the maximum we can achieve

109 it is then

I can see this being a season like the 07/08 season.  There are at least 7 clubs more than capable of making a break for it, I do think we will win the league with a game or two in hand!  I believe only the last play-off position is up for grabs unless a couple of the top clubs absolutely blow-up!

We still have a few tough away games so I'm still thinking the majority of our home games will have to be won.

It's Burton at home.

Thank you, found that now Tues 28th Feb

If anyone do blow, It will be torquay. They only have 6 home games remaining.

Still can't believe there are still unbelievers - we are witnessing the dawn of an era here, guys.

Give it 4 weeks and the rest will be staring at our arse

I think it's the pain of experience, whilst I'm currently enjoying the ride, I can't get carried away until promotion is in the bag. Besides none of us truly knows what Di Canio will do at the end of the season if offered a better job elsewhere.

That's the problem, over the years it's hardly ever been straight forward. Either ups or downs but not many in betweens.

Shrewsbury have beaten us once this season already. We're good enough to beat them, but I won't be getting carried away with any of this 109 points business until we've got that one out of the way!

Seem to remember they were the only side to beat us at home during the 1995/96 promotion season.

Of the 10 home games left we've beaten 4 of those teams so far. Looking at the early days we lost against some crap.

I think we'll get another 40 points thus putting us on 98 for the season. Will that be enough to win the league? Who knows, enough to get promoted for sure.

On a foot note I had a conversation late last week with one of my OU supporting customers. He told me at their last home game the conversation had swung full circle recently from what score they'd beat us by to how many we'd bang in against them for NO reply starting at 0-3. This guy is a genuine supporter and a decent bloke who says things as he sees them. "I hate to admit this" he said to me "but you're nailed on to win the league". Does give you warm cosy feeling when you get unsolicited comments confirming what you (as in I ) have felt for most of the season even when we had that five game losing streak back in August/September from the enemy.

Franchise won the league with 97 points in 07/08.

I reckon we'll need around that figure this time.

I think we'll clinch promotion at Pikeys and win the league at home to Port Vale.

The super-confident talk on this thread is making me nervous.  Still 1/3 of the season to go, and plenty of opportunity to trip up, starting tomorrow.  My 'lose to Oxford in the play off final' nightmare continues to haunt me.  We have to keep turning these results out.  Not anywhere near in the bag at the moment.

I genuinely can't see us losing again this season, maybe a couple of draws, away at the Pox maybe, but I think we can win every game left this season.

The run in from now favours us being that we only have to play the Pox away in the top 11 teams in the league.
The other 11 teams we have either played twice (and won both) or we have already played them away, and with our form of not conceding at home since 8th October, 8 games or 720 mins of football without letting in a goal, and 5 of our next 6 games are at the CG too we SHOULD be top by March.

I agree but I am allowing a little bit of confidence to creep in (against my better judgement) we both know full well that being a Swindon fan is never as easy as it should be!

I sort of agree with you however when you watch us play it really does make you believe that the league is ours for the taking, we're so strong in every position.... the quality of the opposition has been dire this season aswell, we've sometimes not even played at our best and won comfortably..... really can't see us throwing it away.

Totally agree with this ^^^^^^^

Ive been confident for a while that we'd get to at least 90 points. The only change to that recently is Im now thinking we're more likely to get 95+.

If somebody else is good enough to get more and win the league then fair play to them, but with the number of home games we've got left it would take a huge dip in form for us to finish outside the top 3.

This table makes for good viewing at the moment. Projected points totals based on recent form suggests we could even match our 102 points from 85/86!
http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/runin.html (http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/runin.html)

It's playing against the lesser teams that worry me most. Even Hereford gave us a scare, one day we may just not be able to find that odd goal. And look at Macclesfield, one freak wonder strike or lucky deflection from them and we would have dropped two points.

That's always the concern Flashheart however this group of players look as though they can see out games, we've been pretty comfortable going into the last 5 minutes or so in games. I remember under Paul Sturrock in 2007 where we were just doing enough to win... unbearable to watch.

Didn't they also win the JPT that season... Funny that.  :hmmm:

It'll be fine Ardiles.  We've been through the same seasons, the same ups and downs.  And I can you, without fear of being wrong, that we will piss this tinpot league.  We will.

Yup, and one day this will probably be the case, someone will get an unlikely or undeserved draw.  So long as it doesn't become habit we will be OK.

But its unrealistic to think we can win all our games by more than 1 goal. This team at this time is solid. For the first time in a bloody age we can win 1-0 or 2-1. And if a team scores 2 or more against us fair play to them.

I'm confident we'll get at least 90 points to be honest and that's because of the number of home games we have left. I think we'll bag another 21-24 points at home and about 11 away. That means 32-35 more points which leaves us on 90-93. Easily enough for top 3. If we get more than that then we'll win the league.

There was an article in yesterday's FL paper, by their main writer. He basically says that he mostly sees Championship football, but this season he's seen us three times...and there was no difference in the quality of play. He said that even though the table is close at the moment, he predicted that we'll win the league at a canter.

Nice to read that from a neutral perspective.

I looked at the numbers over the last 10 seasons and when we finished 3rd on 85 in 2006/7 that was the highest number of points to clinch promotion. The 2008/9 season was the highest at 87 points but the 4th placed team finished on 84. 81 points is the average to finished 3rd and 75 points is the average for a play off point.

The only concern would be we get a repeat of 2009/10 in League One when the teams going for auto promotion got an above average number of points that in most years would be good for auto promotion. We were on a fantastic run Jan to March and then when we hit 2nd after the Leeds game it all fell apart. Although I think PdC has better control of the dressing room and keeping them focussed.

Would take a point against Shrews and then look to pick up wins in the next two home games. Oxford away could be interesting if we are 10 unbeaten as runs don't usually last that long. Would take a defeat there if it checks us and we go on another run.

The football ladder, with Champions, Autos, PO's and relegation  2005-06 onwards.

Shamelessly stole the idea from the Barnet forum.


97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
69 PO       2008/09
64 Swindon
63 Cheltenham
59 Southend
57 Shrewsbury
56 Crawley, Torquay
51 Scum
49 Rel       2005-2006
48 Port Vale
47 Rel      2010-2011
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Crewe
45 Gills, Rotherham
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Morecambe
43 Aldershot, Accrington, Burton
42 Rel      2007-2008
40 Brizzle Rovers
37 Rel      2008-2009
38 Wimbledon
33 Barnet
32 Bradford
31 Macclesfield
28 Plymouth, Hereford
27 Northampton,
25 Daggenham & R

We could still get relegated so let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

Have you not read the ladder. We are 9 points above the highest relegation total since 2005-06, incidentally that total was set by the scum.

Home free.

Still mathematically possible though Batch!

I was just trolling anyway, you won't find a post from me saying anything other than champions. We'll fucking piss it and my winnings are paying for a big night out in Lids post Bradford. :beers:

I gathered you weren't entirely serious. Does show there is a long way to go yet though.

I ask my wife earlier if she wants a Wembley ticket, she does come to matches but said she is not going to bother with the JPT final as she thinks we will be back at Wembley in May. I told her i dont think so as we are out of the other cups  ;) my worry now is she has this knack like most women have of always being right. Not this time surely :no:

I'll say it again...we'll piss this tinpot league.  No worries.

A good time for a shameless plug of this page on my site!

http://www.swindon-town-fc.co.uk/StatAttack/AveragePointsPerGame.asp

.... though based on the past ten seasons, currently there are five teams who are showing 'certain promotion' form this season.

Love to see us do the double  :D

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
69 PO       2008/09
67 Swindon
64 Cheltenham
63 Southend
61 Shrewsbury
59 Torquay
57 Crawley
54 Scum
51 Gills
50 Port Vale
49 Rel       2005-2006
48 Crewe
47 Rel      2010-2011
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Rotherham, Aldershot
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Morecambe, Accrington
43 Burton
42 Rel      2007-2008
41 Brizzle Rovers
38 Wimbledon
37 Rel      2008-2009
35 Bradford
34 Barnet
33 Macclesfield
31 Daggenham & R, Hereford
29 Plymouth
28 Northampton

I see Paolo has said in today's Adver that 5 more wins is enough for promotion.

I reckon 9 wins for the title.

I reckon 7. March is going to be tough for us. Cheltenham, Rovers and Torquay. All at home. Crewe away and the JPT distraction.

Agree. By the end of march we will have a much clearer picture of our title aspirations

A win tonight and we're mathematically safe from relegation :)

Love it... you just made my day! :-)

A draw will do, as Hereford can only get a maximum of 67 points (the same number as we are on currently) and Plymouth can only get 65, Macclesfield 69 max and both Dagenham and Northampton can only get to 70 points.

Little steps as they say, set one goal at a time!

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
70 Swindon
69 PO       2008/09
64 Cheltenham
63 Southend
62 Shrewsbury, Torquay
57 Crawley
55 Scum
54 Gills
53 Port Vale
49 Rel       2005-2006
49 Crewe
47 Rel      2010-2011
47 Rotherham, Morecambe
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Aldershot
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Accrington
43 Burton
42 Rel      2007-2008
41 Brizzle Rovers
38 Wimbledon
37 Rel      2008-2009
36 Bradford
34 Barnet Macclesfield
32 Plymouth, Hereford
31 Daggenham & R, Northampton

So i think 2 more wins and we have at thr very lesst made the play offs. Good stuff.

Shows that 4 more wins may not be enough for autos though. Might need 5.

Just had a look at Cheltenham's fixtures this month...

Away to Swindon
Home to Gills
Away to Shrewsbury
Home to Oxford
Away to Southend

Ouch !

Clicks "like" button :)

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
73 Swindon
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
69 PO       2008/09
65 Shrewsbury
64 Southend, Cheltenham
63 Torquay
58 Crawley
55 Scum
54 Gills
52 Crewe
50 Rotherham
49 Rel       2005-2006
47 Rel      2010-2011
47 Morecambe
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Accrington, Aldershot
44 Rel      2009-2010
43 Port Vale*, Burton
42 Rel      2007-2008
42 Brizzle Rovers
41 Wimbledon
39 Bradford
37 Rel      2008-2009
37 Barnet
35 Macclesfield, Hereford
34 Northampton
32 Plymouth,
31 Daggenham & R

* 10 points deducted

Who were champions in 07/08, looks like they pissed it?

Franchise 97
Posh 92
Hereford 88

And if you look at the Blue Square premier, our friends from up the road finished a lofty 9th!!

This thread title should be changed to '83 to 102 points' now.

Thats the points total needed to win the league over the past 10 years.

Shrewsbury's official site is a good place to look at previous league 2 tables. Apart from one season where they dropped to the Conference, they've been here every year.

Not as bigger gap to 2nd as I thought.

Surely Rochdale would be a better shout. Except this year of course :)

Last club to get over 100 points in League 2 was Plymouth in 01/02 season.

Can we ???

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
76 Swindon
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
69 PO       2008/09
69 Torquay
68 Shrewsbury
67 Southend
65 Crawley
64 Cheltenham
61 Scum
58 Crewe
57 Gills
53 Rotherham, Aldershot
51 Morecambe
50 Accrington
49 Rel       2005-2006
47 Rel      2010-2011
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Port Vale*, Brizzle Rovers
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Wimbledon
43 Burton
42 Rel      2007-2008
40 Northampton
39 Bradford
37 Rel      2008-2009
38 Barnet
36 Plymouth
35 Macclesfield, Hereford, Daggenham & R

* 10 points deducted

Looking very good!

3 more wins for the title then.

I think we might get atleast 78

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
80 Swindon
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
75 Torquay
72 PO       2009/10
72 Crawley, Shrewsbury
71 PO       2006/07
70 Southend
69 PO       2008/09
65 Scum, Cheltenham
62 Crewe
61 Gills
57 Aldershot
56 Rotherham
54 Morecambe
53 Accrington
50 Brizzle Rovers
49 Rel       2005-2006
47 Rel      2010-2011
47 Burton, Wimbledon
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Port Vale*
44 Rel      2009-2010
42 Rel      2007-2008
42 Northampton
41  Daggenham & R
40 Bradford, Plymouth
39 Barnet
37 Rel      2008-2009
36 Macclesfield
35  Hereford

* 10 points deducted

I agree

Promoted at home to Plymouth.

Win the league at the Pikeys ?? :D

I can make both of those games, so that'd be perfect!

Martingaling wins manager of the month.

That's their title hopes gone then.

365.com reckons 94 points based on recent and seasonal form out of a maximum 101 points available to us.  Lowest finish is eighth, best first

100 points would be fucking awesome.

Not going to happen though - can't see us winning every game!

Should I have put that in the football dream thread? :D

.

100% record since I posted that! still dreaming!

Nicked from another site, like the stats here on how many points needed for each game

97 Title winner 2008
93 Title winner 2009
89 Title winners 2007(Average Points for Title winners)
88 3rd place 2008
86 Title winners 2006, Title winner 2010
85 3rd place 2007, Title winner 2008
83 Swindon---------Form Rating = 2.2 : : Prediction = 96.2 (1st) : : C-Form = 1 : : A-Form = 0.17 : : P-Form = DONE
82 3rd place 2009(Average points needed to finish 3rd)
81 3rd place 2006
80 3rd place 2010
78 play offs 2008, 3rd place 2008
78 Torquay--------Form Rating = 2.2 : : Prediction = 89 (2nd) : : C-Form = 2.2 : : A-Form = 1.2 : : P-Form = -0.6
75 Shrewsbury----Form Rating = 1.8 : : Prediction = 85.8 (3rd) : : C-Form = 2.33 : : A-Form = 1.5 : : P-Form = 0
---
73 Crawley---------Form Rating = 1.7 : : Prediction = 83.2 (4th) : : C-Form = 2.67 : : A-Form = 1.83 : : P-Form = 0.33
72 play offs 2009
71 play offs 2007(Average points needed to finish 7th)
70 Southend-------Form Rating = 1.1 : : Prediction = 75.5 (5th) : : C-Form = 3.8 : : A-Form = 2.8 : : P-Form = 1
69 play offs 2008
68 play offs 2010
68 Cheltenham----Form Rating = 0.9 : : Prediction = 72.5(=6th) : : C-Form = 4.2 : : A-Form = 3.2 : : P-Form = 1.4
66 play offs 2006
65 Oxford----------Form Rating = 1.5 : : Prediction = 72.5 (=6th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = 3.8 : : P-Form = 2
---
63 Crewe-----------Form Rating = 1.8 : : Prediction = 72 (8th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = 4.2 : : P-Form = 2.4
62 Gillingham-----Form Rating = 1.6 : : Prediction = 70 (9th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = 4.4 : : P-Form = 2.6
59 Rotherham-----Form Rating = 1.4 : : Prediction = 66 (10th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = 5 : : P-Form = 3.2
57 Aldershot-------Form Rating = 1.7 : : Prediction = 65.5 (11th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = XXX : : P-Form = 3.6
54 Morecambe----Form Rating = 1.3 : : Prediction = 60.5 (12th) : : C-Form = XXX : : A-Form = XXX : : P-Form = 4.2
53 Accrington


Form rating is the average points scored over 10 game
Prediction is that form carried on for the rest of the season.
C-Form = Points per game required for average score of champions.
A-Form = Points per game required for predicted 84 point finish for 3rd place
P-Form = Points per game required for predicted 75 point finish of 7th place

Remaining games:
Swindon-------Northampton, Plymouth, @Aldershot, @Gillingham, Port Vale, @Bradford
Torquay------ @Oxford, Southend, @Wimbledon, Crewe, @Hereford
Crawley-------@Barnet, Wimbledon, Northampton, @Dag & Red, Hereford, @Accrington
Shrewsbury-- Bradford, Rotherham,Port Vale, @Accrington, Dag & Red, @Wimbledon
Southend-----Wimbledon, @Torquay, Barnet, @Oxford, Macclesfield
Oxford-------- Torquay, Gillingham, @Plymouth, Southend, @Port Vale
Cheltenham--@Rotherham, Accrington, @Crewe, Bradford,@Plymouth
Crewe-------- Bristol Rovers, @Macclesfield, Cheltenham, @Torquay, Aldershot
Gillingham--- Dag & Red, @Oxford, Swindon, @Northampton, Morecambe
Aldershot---- @Plymouth, Dag & Red, Swindon, @Burton, Rotherham, @Crewe
Rotherham-- Cheltenham, @Shrewsbury, Morecambe, @Aldershot, Northampton

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
86 Swindon
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
80 Autos   2010/11
79 Torquay
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
78 Shrewsbury
76 Crawley
73 Southend
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
69 PO       2008/09
68 Cheltenham
65 Scum, Crewe
62 Gills, Rotherham
57 Aldershot
56 Accrington
54 Morecambe
52 Port Vale*
51 Brizzle Rovers, Burton
49 Rel       2005-2006
47 Rel      2010-2011
47 Wimbledon
46 Rel       2006-2007
45 Northampton, Daggenham & R
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Plymouth
43 Bradford
42 Rel      2007-2008
39 Barnet
37 Rel      2008-2009
36 Macclesfield, Hereford

* 10 points deducted

Proof if it were needed that only a biblical catastrophe will see us not promoted. Also shows 'muff will come out fighting as they aren't quite assured of survival yet.

We're up.

15 points left to play for.

Lets win all 5 games and break the 100 point barrier.

I actually really want this.

2 wins guarantees promotion....2 wins and a draw guarantees the title...still a bit to do.

If we win on Saturday Reg and either Turkey or Creepy lose, we're promoted.

A must win game.

Win the home games - should be champions  :)

Very true...after this we've only the one left at home, so a bit of insurance would go down well.                             

I see Fleetwood in the Conference already have 101 with 4 games to go.  I suspect they will be there or thereabouts in L2 next season :sherlock:

That division is so hard to get out of.. 1 automatic, 1 playoff. :eek:

And they're still not promoted yet.

If Crawley dont lose we can't be promoted regardless of what Torquay do.

No he's right.

My bad, just noticed they've only got 4 games left.

If Torquay lose and we win - we will be 10 ahead of them and they will have 3 games left to play.

Leaving only Shrewsbury and Crawley able to catch us.

We'll be assured at the Aldershot match, just don't get the vibes we will cross the line on Saturday. I think we will beat Plymouth, however, I also think both Turkey and Crawley will do enough to keep this bubbling until we play our game in hand.

If we win our next two games and Shrewsbury don't, thats the championship won too

I seem to remember staggering over the line when we has first Wise and Poyet then Luggy when last in the 2nd division. This time we I hope will justify the hard work done by the Paolo, the squad and the management and stamp our superiority over the the remaining fixtures and the rest of the teams in league two to show we are more than worthy champions.

Still 100% since posting that! Still dreaming!

Still 100% since posting that! Still dreaming!

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
89 Swindon
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
81 Shrewsbury
80 Autos   2010/11
80 Torquay
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
77 Crawley
74 Southend
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
71 Cheltenham
69 PO       2008/09
67 Scum, Crewe
63 Gills
62 Rotherham
58 Aldershot
56 Accrington
55 Morecambe
54 Brizzle Rovers
53 Port Vale*
51 Burton
49 Rel       2005-2006
48 Wimbledon
47 Rel      2010-2011
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Bradford, Daggenham & R
45 Northampton
44 Rel      2009-2010
44 Plymouth
42 Rel      2007-2008
40 Barnet
37 Rel      2008-2009
37 Macclesfield, Hereford

* 10 points deducted

102 points. LETS DO IT

101!

This all feels ridiculously comfortable.

Boooooooo

4 games untill we have a gold Npower emblem on our shirts. This is all so new

Dreams shattered.

97 Champs 2007/08
93 Champs 2009/10
89 Champs 2006/07
89 Swindon (P)
88 Autos   2007/08
86 Champs 2005/06, 2010/11
85 Champs 2008/9, Autos 2006/07
85 Shrewsbury
82 Autos   2009/10
81 Autos   2005/06
81 Crawley
80 Autos   2010/11
80 Torquay
78 Autos   2008/09, PO 2007/08
77 Southend
72 PO       2009/10
71 PO       2006/07
71 Cheltenham
70 Crewe
69 PO       2008/09
68 Scum
66 Gills
65 Rotherham
64 Aldershot
57 Accrington
56 Port Vale*
55 Morecambe
54 Brizzle Rovers
51 Wimbledon, Burton
49 Rel       2005-2006
49 Bradford
47 Rel      2010-2011
47 Daggenham & R
46 Rel       2006-2007
46 Northampton
45 Plymouth
44 Rel      2009-2010
42 Rel      2007-2008
40 Barnet
38 Hereford
37 Rel      2008-2009
37 Macclesfield

* 10 points deducted