Thetownend.com

Not particularly scientific, but the analysis below (with thanks to www.swindon-town-fc.co.uk) shows how the gap between ourselves and the 3rd placed team has varied since the start of the season.  The hope is that the depth of our squad will be more resilient than those of our competitors during the winter months and later stages of the season.

Of the teams that started brightly, (I think) only Oxford and Morecambe have started to fall away a little.  Hope a few more join the list before long and allow us to close the gap.  While this is really just a bit of fun - and I know you shouldn't read too much in to the table at this stage, it does pretty much confirm that we've been showing promotion form since the Shrewsbury defeat at the end of August.

After Game      League Position      Points Behind 3rd Place      Games Remaining      Gap to Close (Points per Game)

#1                             1                              0                                  45                                 0.00
#2                             9                              3                                  44                                 0.07
#3                           16                              4                                  43                                 0.09
#4                           19                              7                                  42                                 0.17
#5                           21                              7                                  41                                 0.17
#6                           18                              7                                  40                                 0.18
#7                           13                              5                                  39                                 0.13
#8                           10                              2                                  38                                 0.05
#9                           14                              5                                  37                                 0.14
#10                         10                              4                                   36                                 0.11
#11                         12                              6                                   35                                 0.17
#12                         13                              7                                   34                                 0.21
#13                         11                              4                                   33                                 0.12
#14                         10                              4                                   32                                 0.13
#15                          7                               2                                   31                                 0.06
#16                          7                               3                                   30                                 0.10
#17                          6                               3                                   29                                 0.10
#18                          7                               5                                   28                                 0.18
#19                          6                               5                                   27                                 0.19

Have you turned into DV :D

That was my 'at last, the kids are in bed!' post. ;)

It would have been easier to crack open a beer or 10

Fuck.


Do I have to do anything?

Our games against Southend, Crawley and Cheltenham are massive. We need to close the gap.

OK, looking at it now completely sober, I get it. Stat-tastic mate! 8)

There is no way that they can keep up their current pace - if they did all three would break the 100 points barrier.

One of them will but the other 2 will fall away i think. I can see Southend and Cheltenham falling away and Crawley winning the league. This could however end up like L1 a few years back where there were 6 or 7 teams way ahead of the rest

If we can make sure we are in touch at Christmas, I'm sure we will have a stronger squad than most of the teams around us when suspensions and injuries start to take effect.

There are probably two or three "first" elevens that we could put out that could compete in this league whereas a lot of the clubs without the budget we have had can't have the depth of our squad.

Still got to put that into practice on the pitch though!!

000001110 This is quite remarkable.

All competitions since August: P 17  W 12   D 3  L 2. None too shabby!

We need to get Timlin away from Southend he's having a big impact for them, that may have a bearing when he leaves they may drop some points but I suspect they will be there or thereabouts come end of the season Sturrock knows what needs to be done and that is a big help

Pretty sure Nick Watkins has said he will remove either the player or the money from Southend meaning if they want him they have to buy him, or at least pay all of his wages

Indeed he did, however they also said that it's no point having a player in the squad who is a disruptive influence. Not sure whether that would apply to Timlin, but I guess that would be the risk of getting him back.

Another option would be to loan him to someone else who isn't going to be a threat at the top of league 2, Plymouth maybe.

Not Plymouth, he'll do well and they will go up the league.

I want to see them get relegated

Why is everyone talking as if Micheal Timlin is a world beater?

He's just one player in a team who is top of the league. The season is long and there still a lot of games to play. It's not as if that we don't get promoted or if Southend do that it's all down to him.

He isn't a world beater but he is a key asset to one of our main contenders for auto promotion.  For that reason alone we need to end the loan in January.

I would rather he was here as backup for Ferry/Smith than helping Southend in final months of the season, seems a no brainer to me.

All this talk is about making Southend cough up our valuation isn't it. We aren't so worried about his ability that we would turn down Southend's bid if it matched our valuation.

It would be karma, finally, for the Blackburn/Duncan Shearer deal and I think di Canio is ruthless enough to do it.

Makes sense to loan out players we don't need to teams in the bottom half of the division - hopefully it will help them to take points off the teams at the top and they won't be able to play against us. I've read articles before suggesting this is what some of the top teams in the PL do, or at least an added bonus to them loaning players to other PL teams.

Did you know that we were the last side to beat Southend? Since then they are unbeaten in 16 fact fans.

If we were offered a fiver for Timlin I'd take it.

On the basis that he is playing regularly for a team that is top of our division, I would rather we send him out on loan to Supermarine for the rest of the season.

Not saying that he is the second coming by any means, but Southend must rate him, and would presumably miss him. And for that reason alone we shouldn't let him stay there

A quick update:

After Game      League Position      Points Behind 3rd Place      Games Remaining      Gap to Close (Points per Game)

#1                             1                              0                                  45                                 0.00
#2                             9                              3                                  44                                 0.07
#3                           16                              4                                  43                                 0.09
#4                           19                              7                                  42                                 0.17
#5                           21                              7                                  41                                 0.17
#6                           18                              7                                  40                                 0.18
#7                           13                              5                                  39                                 0.13
#8                           10                              2                                  38                                 0.05
#9                           14                              5                                  37                                 0.14
#10                         10                              4                                   36                                 0.11
#11                         12                              6                                   35                                 0.17
#12                         13                              7                                   34                                 0.21
#13                         11                              4                                   33                                 0.12
#14                         10                              4                                   32                                 0.13
#15                          7                               2                                   31                                 0.06
#16                          7                               3                                   30                                 0.10
#17                          6                               3                                   29                                 0.10
#18                          7                               5                                   28                                 0.18
#19                          6                               5                                   27                                 0.19
#20                          6                               7                                   26                                 0.27
#21                          5                               5                                   25                                 0.20

Great win today...but the gap remains.

The gap remains, but 2nd is now the same distance away - 4 points closer than a blink of an eye ago.

4th place Shrewsbury's form is bloody good too.

Southend are possibly turning to shit, six games without a win though three of them were cup games.

As I think I said before, there is no way the top three (or four) can keep up their pace for the rest of the season. Reckon our extra finances and fitness will play more of a role come the new year.

I agree, although I have a feeling Crawley may carry their momentum from last season through to the end of this.

Just had a look at the other Boxing day fixtures. Crawley at home to Gillingham and Cheltenham at home to Shrewsbury.
If we pick up three points at Torquay we will be gaining ground on someone.

Very interesting stats Ardiles - shows we have to keep going remorselessly.

The difference though is that there would have been about 10 teams within 5 points or less last time we were 5 points behind - 10 teams capable of putting a run together to challenge the top 3.

Now there's just Burton Albion, so 15 games unbeaten is definitely helping!

We're at the half way point, and the gap remains stubbornly at 5 points.  Gills and Shrewsbury defeats have helped with the league position this weekend, but the top three stay just out of reach.  Who's going to blink first?  Latest update below.

After Game      League Position      Points Behind 3rd Place      Games Remaining      Gap to Close (Points per Game)

#1                             1                              0                                  45                                 0.00
#2                             9                              3                                  44                                 0.07
#3                           16                              4                                  43                                 0.09
#4                           19                              7                                  42                                 0.17
#5                           21                              7                                  41                                 0.17
#6                           18                              7                                  40                                 0.18
#7                           13                              5                                  39                                 0.13
#8                           10                              2                                  38                                 0.05
#9                           14                              5                                  37                                 0.14
#10                         10                              4                                   36                                 0.11
#11                         12                              6                                   35                                 0.17
#12                         13                              7                                   34                                 0.21
#13                         11                              4                                   33                                 0.12
#14                         10                              4                                   32                                 0.13
#15                          7                               2                                   31                                 0.06
#16                          7                               3                                   30                                 0.10
#17                          6                               3                                   29                                 0.10
#18                          7                               5                                   28                                 0.18
#19                          6                               5                                   27                                 0.19
#20                          6                               7                                   26                                 0.27
#21                          5                               5                                   25                                 0.20
#22                          7                               5                                   24                                 0.21
#23                          5                               5                                   23                                 0.22

You know that if you hadn't created this thread, we wouldn't have this 5 point problem hanging over our heads and we'd close it easily. You've given the gods something to fuck with now. If we don't finish as Champions it's your fault.

Crawley are away at the scum tomorrow, so maybe a chance to close on 1st. Can't see anyone else around us slipping up though. But it's a funny old game Saint.

7 home games from the next 12, fuck third place, let's win it!

I can see town winning it,southend away could be a great away day

I win £444.xx something if we win the league. I don't gamble apart from every year I put about £20 on us to win the league. (Yes, every fucking year...)

I did us e/w
Think we will finish top 3 easily. I expect our frontline to really come together now and see us home and dry.

I think the odds were too shit for "promoted", as Betfair had it, so I got a few quid down and had some random punt. It came in and paid just over £60. I then placed all that on us as champions too. If it comes in, it'll cover all betting losses and then some. :)

I had a fiver each way on us to win the league, can't remember the odds and can't remember if I did it online or if I have a slip. Better find out I think!

The best odds I saw Town at were 22-1 before the Rotherham game. After we beat them I put my tenner on for us to win the Championship at 18-1. They never got better than that.
I think we were 9-1 at the start of the season.

are we planning to win the championship this year? as we're in league two i think you might be out a tenner

I think a more interesting stat is that while we are currently trailing second and third, Southend and Cheltenham by 6 points (we're on 43, them on 49) that's also the amount of points we're trailing Macari's 86 side by at this point.

After 24 games we had 49 under Macari and ended up pissing the league on 102 points, 18 points ahead (not that I need to tell you lot that part) Only lost one more game in the league after the 24th, winning 16 and drawing 5.

We can still win this league quite convincingly. If we're 6 points behind Macari's boys at the end of the season, I can't see it being any other result.

I got 100 on at 11/1 with Bet365 before season start, then had 100 at 17/1 after the Pox defeat with Betfair.

So that's nearly 3 grand coming my way!!

Champions, or promotion ?

Jesus thats confidence,

I've got a quid on us to win the league at about 11/1

Would have thought champions given we're odds on across the baord to go up, even on the exchanges

Yeah - that's for us to win the League. And I am confident :pint:

I have left it a few weeks before updating this thread once more, and I'm glad I did.  The tables, at last, are starting to turn.  Not only are we now opening up some space between ourselves and the likes of Oxford and Gillingham (both of whom were ahead of us until fairly recently) but we have finally started to reel in the top three.  The momentum is with Swindon Town right now.

The games since the last update are, as ever, highlighted at the bottom in blue.

After Game      League Position      Points Behind 3rd Place      Games Remaining      Gap to Close (Points per Game)

#1                             1                              0                                  45                                 0.00
#2                             9                              3                                  44                                 0.07
#3                           16                              4                                  43                                 0.09
#4                           19                              7                                  42                                 0.17
#5                           21                              7                                  41                                 0.17
#6                           18                              7                                  40                                 0.18
#7                           13                              5                                  39                                 0.13
#8                           10                              2                                  38                                 0.05
#9                           14                              5                                  37                                 0.14
#10                         10                              4                                   36                                 0.11
#11                         12                              6                                   35                                 0.17
#12                         13                              7                                   34                                 0.21
#13                         11                              4                                   33                                 0.12
#14                         10                              4                                   32                                 0.13
#15                          7                               2                                   31                                 0.06
#16                          7                               3                                   30                                 0.10
#17                          6                               3                                   29                                 0.10
#18                          7                               5                                   28                                 0.18
#19                          6                               5                                   27                                 0.19
#20                          6                               7                                   26                                 0.27
#21                          5                               5                                   25                                 0.20
#22                          7                               5                                   24                                 0.21
#23                          5                               5                                   23                                 0.22
#24                          4                               6                                   22                                 0.27
#25                          4                               5                                   21                                 0.24
#26                          4                               3                                   20                                 0.15

The words you're looking for are critical mass.

TBH, I don't think that once we move into the top three we'll drop out of it it's just a guess as to whether it is 1, 2 or 3

we will win the league and mr ladbrokes will be paying me plenty dollar. Third place can go fuck itself

I agree. Although in my case it'll be those betting against us on Betfair that pay for a night out in Leeds after Bradford.

Once upon a time....

There was a nail that was hit bang on the head with a hammer.

And they all lived happily ever after.

The end.

Had to be done.  I started this thread back in November precisely because I knew this day would arrive.  We're in the top 3...just.  Now we need to push on, consolidate and - dare I say it - aim higher than 3rd Place.  Latest update at the bottom in blue.  Enjoy it.

After Game      League Position      Points Behind 3rd Place      Games Remaining      Gap to Close (Points per Game)

#1                             1                              0                                  45                                 0.00
#2                             9                              3                                  44                                 0.07
#3                           16                              4                                  43                                 0.09
#4                           19                              7                                  42                                 0.17
#5                           21                              7                                  41                                 0.17
#6                           18                              7                                  40                                 0.18
#7                           13                              5                                  39                                 0.13
#8                           10                              2                                  38                                 0.05
#9                           14                              5                                  37                                 0.14
#10                         10                              4                                   36                                 0.11
#11                         12                              6                                   35                                 0.17
#12                         13                              7                                   34                                 0.21
#13                         11                              4                                   33                                 0.12
#14                         10                              4                                   32                                 0.13
#15                          7                               2                                   31                                 0.06
#16                          7                               3                                   30                                 0.10
#17                          6                               3                                   29                                 0.10
#18                          7                               5                                   28                                 0.18
#19                          6                               5                                   27                                 0.19
#20                          6                               7                                   26                                 0.27
#21                          5                               5                                   25                                 0.20
#22                          7                               5                                   24                                 0.21
#23                          5                               5                                   23                                 0.22
#24                          4                               6                                   22                                 0.27
#25                          4                               5                                   21                                 0.24
#26                          4                               3                                   20                                 0.15
#27                          2                               -                                   19                                 -

Shouldn't it be a negative number? (loving it btw)

Yeah I want negative numbers!

But we are on the same points total as third place...

Hence the big fat zero in the 'Points behind 3rd Place' column.

(While we're not technically 'behind 3rd place' at the moment, the logic does still work.  Did I tell you I was an accountant?)

I was trying to explain why there wasn't a negative value.

When we win the league, nice wonga from the bookies. :pint: