Thetownend.com

Current Table
1. Bournemouth 33 58
2. Sheffield United 32 57
-----------------------------
3. Yeovil 32 57
4. Doncaster 31 57
5. Tranmere 32 56
6. Swindon 31 55
-----------------------------
7. Brentford 31 54
8. Coventry 33 50
9. Walsall 33 48


Right, I've taken the number of points from the last 10 league one seasons to work out the highest, average and lowest points total for 1st, 2nd and 6th place. I have also worked out the 'guarantee' number, the highest number of points a team has finished 2nd, 3rd and 7th with +1

1st: Highest 101, Lowest 82, Average 94, Guarantee 94.
2nd: Highest 93, Lowest 79, Average 86, Guarantee 91. (the guarantee would only be 88 if it wasnt for Sheffield United finishing 3rd last season with a staggering 90 points!)
6th: Highest 81, Lowest 71, Average 75, Guarantee 81

For the sake of the rest - I've used the guarantee number rather than anything else, as it would take something special for someone to beat the guarantee number but not finish in the expected place.

What with the top 8 or so being very close together I dont think it will come as a surprise to anyone that it looks likely to be a very low scoring season this year. Currently no team is even averaging 2 points per game and all need well above that to hit the guarantee number, I might be better off changing this for the average number at some point.

For example, if table topping Bournemouth kept their average PPG the same between now and the end of the season they'd only finish on 81 points. Which would see you finish 6th in 2003 but 2nd in 2006. I think this years table will end up looking more like the 2006 table. Southend 82, Colchester 79, Brentford 76, Huddersfield 73, Barnsley 72, Swansea 71 - very low scoring.

Bournemouth would need to win all their remaining games to get to a previously unbeaten 1st place points total...

Enjoy, or hate - I couldnt give a fuck either way  :)






Bournemouth
Played: 33
Points: 58
Average PPG: 1.76
Points needed to finish 1st: 36 (2.77)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 33 (2.54)
Points needed to finish >6th+:23 (1.77)
Remaining Fixtures
Sheffield United (h)
Coventry (h)
Leyton Orient (a)
Doncaster (h)
Stevenage (a)
Oldham (a)
Bury (h)
Colchester (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Notts County (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Carlisle (h)
Tranmere (a)


Sheffield United
Played: 32
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.78
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.64)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.43)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.71)
Remaining Fixtures
Bournemouth (a)
Leyton Orient (h)
Oldham (a)
Franchise (h)
Crewe (a)
Stevenage (a)
Brentford (h)
Tranmere (a)
Carlisle (h)
Walsall (a)
Swindon (h)
Crawley (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Preston (h)


Yeovil Town
Played: 32
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.78
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.64)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.43)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.71)
Remaining Fixtures
Doncaster (a)
Colchester (a)
Tranmere (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Crawley (h)
Swindon (h)
Carlisle (a)
Walsall (h)
Notts County (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Stevenage (a)
Crewe (h)
Bury (a)


Doncaster Rovers
Played: 31
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.84
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.47)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.27)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.60)
Remaining Fixtures
Crawley (a)
Yeovil (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Franchise (a)
Bournemouth (a)
Carlisle (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Coventry (a)
Swindon (h)
Tranmere (h)
Crewe (a)
Notts County (a)
Brentford (a)


Tranmere Rovers
Played: 32
Points: 56
Average PPG: 1.75
Points needed to finish 1st: 38 (2.71)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 35 (2.50)
Points needed to finish >6th+:25 (1.79)
Remaining Fixtures
Swindon (h)
Colchester (a)
Notts County (h)
Yeovil (a)
Oldham (h)
Walsall (a)
Franchise (a)
Stevenage (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Preston (a)
Bournemouth (h)


Paolo Di Canio's some shit cunts Swindon Town
Played: 31
Points: 55
Average PPG: 1.77
Points needed to finish 1st: 39 (2.60)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 36 (2.40)
Points needed to finish >6th+:26 (1.73)
Remaining Fixtures
Tranmere (a)
Preston (h)
Bury (h)
Coventry (a)
Walsall (h)
Brentford (a)
Yeovil (a)
Notts County (h)
Oldham (h)
Doncaster (a)
Crewe (h)
Franchise (a)
Sheffield United (a)
Stevenage (h)
Scunthorpe (a)


Brentford
Played: 31
Points: 54
Average PPG: 1.74
Points needed to finish 1st: 40 (2.67)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 37 (2.47)
Points needed to finish >6th+:27 (1.80)
Remaining Fixtures
Walsall (h)
Crawley (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Stevenage (a)
Carlisle (a)
Swindon (h)
Preston (h)
Sheffield United (a)
Notts County (h)
Franchise (a)
Coventry (a)
Crewe (a)
Portsmouth (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Doncaster (h)


Coventry City
Played: 33
Points: 50
Average PPG: 1.52
Points needed to finish 1st: 44 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 41 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:31 (2.38)
Remaining Fixtures
Crewe (h)
Bournemouth (a)
Swindon (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Colchester (h)
Hartlepool (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (h)
Walsall (a)
Brentford (h)
Crawley (a)
Leyton Orient (h)
Notts County (a)


Walsall
Played: 33
Points: 48
Average PPG: 1.45
Points needed to finish 1st: 46 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 43 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:33 (2.54)
Remaining Fixtures
Brentford (a)
Carlisle (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Swindon (a)
Tranmere (h)
Crawley (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Yeovil (a)
Coventry (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Bury (h)
Crewe (a)

Excellent. I've been waiting for this.

Paolo Di Canio's Swindon Town raised a smirk, nice one for doing this again DeeV.

[url width=500 height=281]http://i.imgur.com/ezSatuR.gif[/url]

My pleasure, might even get to a game or two for the run in.

Although I did have this thought; if the play off final is ourselves against Danny bottler Wilson's Sheffield United - who would lose?

A lot of teams left to play each other, all in everyones our own hands in a way.

i think Wembley would collapse in on itself like a black hole.

Oddly, that was my conclusion to...

Guarantee, it's guarantee.

We've got 55 points, not 54.

DV is back!

It did indeed. :nod:

This Saturday's games are interesting as some of the top teams play each other.

Bornmuff and Blades appear to have a shittier run in than most

Yeovil's run-in seems fairly benign, as does Brentford's

Double-edged sword when the top teams play each other at the fag-end of a season

Honestly cant see Tranmere or Donny lasting the pace.

Swindon, Bornmuff and Blades - perm any 2 from 3 for 1st and 2nd place.

Tranmere to fail to make play-offs, Blades v Yeovil play-off final

I'd back us in the bigger games we have to play, but I worry about us against sides like Bury, Oldham, Scunthorpe! I still think we'll make the top 2!

I think we've probably got the toughest run in of the lot. That might actually help us though.

We have a lot of difficult away games!

Don't like the fact that we struggle to score that first goal.

The natural pessimist in me can see us ending up 7th. The realist says play offs, but no further.

Well that's us out the running then

fuck you STFC

Boycott time?

:)

Just not Crickeeet.

Time to completely wash my hands of it all. Not worth it...

Oh you.

Survival run in? or are we ok?  :hmmm: I think we'll be ok, but with our club you just never know!

I think the players will automatically turn into donkeys overnight and we will lose the next 10 games in a row.

The managers inuence on a team cannot be underestimated

donny losing

What the fuck does all that explain ????????????   (Even if you can understand it).

More to the point, why did you have to quote the entire post?

That all the teams need around 2.5 points per game to win the title.

Rocket Science.

This needs updating DV, you're slacking

We've had 2 games!!

10 games left.
6 away (Brentford, Yeovil, Doncaster, Fucking Franchise, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe)
4 home (Notts County, Oldham, Crewe and Stevenage)

I have no idea how this will pan out.
Our home form is awful at present, our away form is impressive (last away defeat was Notts County in November), but with 4 of the top 6 to play away, these games won't be easy.

To get in the autos I reckon we'll need to win at least 7 of these.
It's ours to throw away.

Play offs I reckon. Feeling very pessimistic.

10 points from our remaining 10 games would seal it.

Did you feel that way last week after Coventry? Will you feel that way if we win at Brentford on Tuesday? :hmmm:

Ha I've learned to always expect the worse as a Swindon fan and then the good times are great.

We'll finish 2nd behind Sheff United.

I can't see Donny dropping from the top 2.

That is very tough on paper!

Especially if we continue to struggle at home.

I have had a feeling since Ritchie went that we would be meeting Bournemouth in the Playoff final....how we both get there is anyones guess....but the Hartlepool,Bury and now Walsall results have me thinking auto is not on the radar anymore.

2 from 9 against those has me remembering the Wilson playoff year...Leeds away and all that but failing v Walsall and Exeter in the home matches to put our seal on an auto place.

was saying this sat before the game, I also have this horrible feeling coventry are going to make the playoffs, and we are going to meet them :eek:

Coventry in the final would be a rather tasty affair i reckon.

But no i am going to remain positive....at present i am looking for a few yards to park my lorry at Brentford on account of having to pick up in Slough onTuesday!!

Ten matches still and we could still sneak an auto.

All these horrible feelings. Relax.

If we make the Play-Offs after the last month or two then I would deem that a great achievement. None of the other challenging clubs has faced our issues (not their problem, I grant you) but we're still up there fighting.

We're still Ok. We've hit the self destruct button and we're still right in there. If you'd have offered me this position before the season started I'd have snatched your hand off. The nerves will really start to kick in. A lot of our players have seen it all before. If we can get in a couple of decent loanees we'll be alright. Top 2 is still well on Whereas we've got to go to Brentford, Sheff U, Yeovil and Donny, i can't see any of them looking forward to playing us and at the mo I'd rather put the pressure on them and be the away team.
My glass is still half full - a bit disappointed as we could have been so much better off but all the others will be claiming that too.

We're 2 (TWO) points off the autos yet after a poor result (that wasn't actually that poor) some of you are banging on as though we've blown it.

Can we get back in the mix?.... We ARE in the mix.

It's still in our own hands and the fact we've got the better teams to play will work in our favour. Always has.

We'll finish Top 2.

In the strongest position we've been in for ages. Some decent loanees will see us up automatically.

Looks like a few of us are remembering 2010 when we limped over the line.  However, our home form seems to have dipped earlier this time, which gives us time to turn it around.

I can see us picking up more points away from home now than at home and like Ralphy said I think Doncaster will take one of the auto spots. If we don''t bring in any decent loans, I think the play offs beckon.  Third time lucky at the new Wembley?  :)

We aint blown it.....but we are slowly blowing it.....three bad home results on the bounce actually.

Comprende?

During our 3* bad home results on the bounce, we've actually improved our position!

Comprende?

*We've not won at home in 4

You could make that argument for any team in the top six.

Not really as donny have pulled away now, only one auto LEFT up for grabs now IMO

This is what a lot of people are forgetting.

In most seasons our current form really would be causing us to blow it. This season however is not a normal season.

A couple of weeks ago people would have said (indeed were saying) that about Bournemouth.

I usually sit on the negative side of equal but it's clear we have a great chance of promotion if not winningthe league itself. We need a few bodies for sure and I'm optimistic we can them in. I'm sure the manager will know what he needs.

Pulled away? Only 5 points in it and we have a game in hand!

Besides, we have still improved our position in the auto spots despite our last 3/4 home games.

Yes that is true, but i think donny will push on now, ala leeds in 2010

I was talking to a Coventry fan before the game last week. I was saying that any team in the top 7 that managed to go unbeaten from that point until the end of the season would go up. I pointed out that prior to the Bury defeat we had been unbeaten in (I think) 13. Another similar run would achieve that aim for us. Two games later, we're still on course to do that.

Maybe they will. If so then fair play to them. It is worth remembering however, that we have a game in hand and still have to play them (away from home, where we have been playing better of late) and don't forget our +200 goal difference 8)

Edit: just spotted - BR said the same thing. Oh well, great minds and all that.

Agree its only 5 points, but having watched us in the last 5 or 6 appart from cov, im not convinced we have the push to see us into the autos
 

Two of those were excellent away wins. Two others were with caretaker player managers in charge. The other was a draw against the in form team in the division.

sorry home games

but we looked a shitload better v Walsall than we did against PNE or Bury. Hartlepool were a decent side with an inspired keeper. Keep the faith Gary.

People have to remember that in almost any promotion run (apart from when you are running away with the league which is obviously a rarity), you get ups and downs. This season I think you're going to get even more of those. One week, sky high, the next, down in the dumps.

I remember going to Ipswich at about this time of the year in the 89/90 Ardiles promotion season. We lost 1-0 and were piss, piss poor. I was utterly convinced we were not going to make the play offs. Looking at http://www.swindon-town-fc.co.uk/Results.asp?Season=1989-1990 now, I see we had also lost the previous game 1-3 at home to Hull and then only won one game in the next four. We still ended up getting promoted (then severely shafted - but that's another story).

If you look up the definition of "blown it" in the dictionary, you will see a photo of Oxford and Bournemouth.

OK, fair enough. Our last 6 (you said 5 or 6) home games have finished...

4-0
2-0
1-1
1-1
0-1
2-2

Just the one defeat there.

Again, two of those games were with those 2 caretaker player managers who, God love 'em, didn't have a bleeding clue (a bit harsh I know) and another was against that in form side, Walsall. Preston and Hartlepool are on reasonable runs at the moment as well.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the home form improve and I hope it does. It's just not as bad as it may seem. Most importantly, the teams around us are dropping points left right and centre as well.

We're Doomed!

Leeds didn't exactly push on in 2010, they grabbed the last auto spot on the final game of the season iirc?  I agree with you about Doncaster though.  They've won a lot of games in the last few minutes, which has helped their cause.


I'm not so sure Bournemouth have blown it.  They might have had their blip at the right time, sort themselves out and sneak their way back up.

Current Table
1. Doncaster 37 68
2. Sheffield United 36 57
-----------------------------
3. Swindon 36 63
4. Tranmere 37 63
5. Yeovil 36 62
6. Brentford 36 61
-----------------------------
7. Bournemouth 37 58
8. Coventry 37 56
9. Walsall 37 56


Doncaster Rovers
Played: 37
Points: 68
Average PPG: 1.84
Points needed to finish 1st: 26 (2.89)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 23 (2.56)
Points needed to finish >6th+:13 (1.44)
Remaining Fixtures
Carlisle (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Coventry (a)
Swindon (h)
Tranmere (h)
Crewe (a)
Notts County (a)
Brentford (a)


Sheffield United
Played: 36
Points: 65
Average PPG: 1.81
Points needed to finish 1st: 29 (2.90)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 26 (2.60)
Points needed to finish >6th+:16 (1.60)
Remaining Fixtures
Crewe (a)
Stevenage (a)
Brentford (h)
Tranmere (a)
Carlisle (h)
Walsall (a)
Swindon (h)
Crawley (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Preston (h)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paolo Di Canio's some shit cunt's Kevin MacDonald's Swindon Town
Played: 36
Points: 63
Average PPG: 1.75
Points needed to finish 1st: 31 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 28 (2.80)
Points needed to finish >6th+:18 (1.80)
Remaining Fixtures
Brentford (a)
Yeovil (a)
Notts County (h)
Oldham (h)
Doncaster (a)
Crewe (h)
Franchise (a)
Sheffield United (a)
Stevenage (h)
Scunthorpe (a)


Tranmere Rovers
Played: 37
Points: 63
Average PPG: 1.70
Points needed to finish 1st: 31 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 28 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:18 (2.00)
Remaining Fixtures
Walsall (a)
Franchise (a)
Stevenage (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Preston (a)
Bournemouth (h)


Yeovil Town
Played: 36
Points: 62
Average PPG: 1.72
Points needed to finish 1st: 32 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 29 (2.90)
Points needed to finish >6th+:19 (1.90)
Remaining Fixtures
Crawley (h)
Swindon (h)
Carlisle (a)
Walsall (h)
Notts County (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Stevenage (a)
Crewe (h)
Bury (a)


Brentford
Played: 36
Points: 61
Average PPG: 1.69
Points needed to finish 1st: 33 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 30 (3.00)
Points needed to finish >6th+:20 (2.00)
Remaining Fixtures
Walsall (h)
Swindon (h)
Preston (h)
Sheffield United (a)
Notts County (h)
Franchise (a)
Coventry (a)
Crewe (a)
Portsmouth (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Doncaster (h)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bournemouth
Played: 37
Points: 58
Average PPG: 1.57
Points needed to finish 1st: 36 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 33 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:23 (2.56)
Remaining Fixtures
Stevenage (a)
Oldham (a)
Bury (h)
Colchester (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Notts County (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Carlisle (h)
Tranmere (a)


Coventry City
Played: 37
Points: 56
Average PPG: 1.51
Points needed to finish 1st: 38 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 35 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:25 (2.78)
Remaining Fixtures
Colchester (h)
Hartlepool (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (h)
Walsall (a)
Brentford (h)
Crawley (a)
Leyton Orient (h)
Notts County (a)


Walsall
Played: 37
Points: 56
Average PPG: 1.51
Points needed to finish 1st: 38 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 35 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:25 (2.78)
Remaining Fixtures
Tranmere (h)
Crawley (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Yeovil (a)
Coventry (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Bury (h)
Crewe (a)


...few games on...and all this really tells us is that its going to be a low scoring season. Everyones one in with a chance, the most consistent teams will go up.

Just to clarify things for the "our form is terrible Doncaster are running away with it" tendency. Curent form guide of the last 5 and 10 games is as follows:
              5 games         10 games
Donny -    10 pts             15 pts
Blades -    11 pts             18 pts
STFC   -     8  pts             17 pts
Tranny -    7  pts             10 pts
Yeo      -    8  pts             23 pts
Brentford - 7 pts              15 pts
Bmuff     -  0 pts              15 pts

Now if we were Bournemouth I could understand people being a bit disturbed by the dramatic loss of form. That 100% over 5 games followed by 0% for the next 5 is what you call a fucking slump.
As we took 8 points from the last 5 games, not much different to what the blessed Paolo managed for the 5 games before that, I can't see what people are getting so agitated by.

Some interesting stats there. I hope we do but I can't see us getting more than 15 points out of out last 10 games. that will hopefully be enough for top 6.

If we beat Brentford, Yeovil, Doncaster & Sheff Utd during the run in we will deserve to go up!

We have lost 1 game in the last 16, winning 8 and drawing 7.  Auto promotion form.
Even if you err on the side of caution, since Shrewsbury it's 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat, ample for play offs at least.
If this is us in bad form, imagine if we find some.

Update please...

If we win all our remaining games we'll go up automatically.

Let's just do that then

I think we should, it'll make life easier for everyone.

I'd like it if we could win some, draw some and lose some. Just to keep it interesting.

That's agreed then. Fuck off sonic

The more posts on here = more money in my pocket. Losses are good.

Here you go, have a 0.000000001p on me :)

I thought you did this for love and adulation,  not filthy lucre.

My world is collapsing.

He does it for filthy love.

The best kind.

Sonic makes money off this site? Burn him!

So that's why he always goads me into posting..  :hmmm:

Wait, we're being whored out? Boo hiss!

Presumably its only if we click on the ads though? Or are you set up with cost per impression?

I get 64p per post.

Keep going!

if true. how?

I don't think it's true.

neither do i hence why i asked him

How much extra do you get for posting gifs?

Is that why he moved to Norway? So he could look a gif Norse in the mouth?

 :clap:

Very, very good.

I want my share then

50% of every post i make

[url width=500 height=259]http://i.imgur.com/flgVncL.gif[/url]

Looking at Sheef Utd run in, they have 9 games to fit in the final month, with 3 of those against promotion rivals.

I'm hoping they run out of steam or bottle it.

An interesting montyh ahead.

Every game till the end of the season is now massive.

Is it like we have 7 cup finals?

Absobloodylutely

10 if you count the play offs!

hopefully we won't be needing those, in the right way.

Everybody loves a good old 6 pointer.

You had to say it JJ!

We are in a little mini-league with those around us...

Donny in the FL paper were bemoaning their run in, all top half teams iirc.

I've had a premonition. We're going up via the play offs - Adam Rooney is going to seal it for us  8)

I shudder at the thought. Not wembley again  :(

We can still go up via the autos but we have to win at Donny and at Sheffield Utd.

Our last two home games have killed us.

So are we still in it or are we dead?

I think we're still in it.

Would rather have won against Notts and Oldham and gone to Donny and Sheffield Utd with a point being sufficient.

Have to do it the other way round now.

That might not be a bad thing. It's better to take 3 points off donny and Sheff utd then just one. Of course it would only be better if we won!

If the last two home games killed us but we're still in it, are we undead?