Thetownend.com

Think this might be the first topic I've ever started but I just wanted to try and establish if I am alone in actually believing we are going to stay up..... not just hopeful that we might, I actually think we will.
No idea why I think this way because given our form and the way the table looks at the moment, no sane person would give us much hope.
Anyone else have such unfathomable belief?

I wish I did.  I think it would take two straight wins before I would start to think 'just maybe'.  But I'm not there at the moment.

I am with Ardiles on this.

Think if we can break this streak and just get a win, we still have enough time to pull ourselves out of it. Needs to be soon though.

At the moment I'm trying to ready myself for the fact we're going to get relegated.

If I try and stay positive then it's only going to hurt even more if we do go down.

Ask me at 5pm on Saturday. If we have 4 points or more from the next two games then yes, we might stay up. Anything less and we're as good as down.

I agree with ardiles also.  2 successive wins would change everything.  but at the moment 1 win looks a million miles away.

i am with bullethead.
There just have to be four teams more shit, or less lucky, than us this season.
And we cant be this shit, or unlucky, for the next 3 months either.

We were unlucky not to beat Exeter - we were unlucky not to beat Tranmere - we were unlucky not to beat Rochdale - having dominated all three games against decent sides.from what I see (and hear) of the colchester game were unlucky not to get something there.

If we had have had that little bit of extra luck against Exeter and trannies and Dale, right now we'd be 6 points better off than we are, and many of us optimistic types would be swapping jocular "only three wins off the play-offs" stories, and working out whether we wanted to risk it and book a holiday in late May or not. Instead of looking up where AFC Wimbledon play in the A-Z.

Such luck cannot stay against us forever. if we create the number of chances we did against Exeter, tranmere, and Rochdale we will beat most sides in our league at home. and upset a couple away.
We might need a new manager either way, but I still think we are going to stay up

Although we are on a crap streak, we're not as good as down, even if we don't get 4 points next 2 games. We have only played 2/3 rd's of the season, there are 15 games to go. Complete doom and gloom is still at least a month away.

We'll be safe with three games to go.  :beers:

The big issue is that games which once would have been "taken a point before the game" matches are quickly becoming "Must get 3 points" because not only do we need new points but we're chasing ones we've dropped over the last few months.

I can't see us doing it.

I'm with bullethead, I won't for a moment entertain thoughts of relegation, it hasn't even crossed my mind. It's just not the way I think. I'm not a rollover and die kind of guy and will look upon thoughts of being relegated as giving up, until such time as it becomes inescapable.

We're simply not going anywhere and I am not even slightly concerned.

Ask me again Wednesday.

The performances by all accounts have got better, so it seems finally the mentality of the players has changed. We've gone from a team believing we are in a false position and that it will sort itself out who still talk about play offs!! to a team that have realized they have to scrap for every single point left - Sure, the switch in mentality is 2 months too late but its happened now.

We have to win games though, bad luck is a fucking shit excuse. Sure, we've been on the end of some bad luck but we've also had a deflected winner against Southampton, a soft penalty against Tranmere and Sheehan blatantly kick a player and get away with it.

I feel Tuesdays game is must win, we have to break the run now. We have to win now, a performance isnt good enough, a draw isnt good enough.

If we dont get a win tomorrow then I believe we will go down, get a win and we might just have a chance.

Its still very difficult to see where 21 points (it could be 2 or 3 less in the end mind you) are going to come from?

Exeter (a)
Carlisle (h)
Southampton (a)
Walsall (h)
Plymouth (a)
Daggers (h)
Huddersfield (a)
Brighton (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Brentford (a)
Franchise (h)
Notts County (h)
Sheffield Wednesday (a)
Oldham (h)
Tranmere (a)

I can only see about 12 points there!

Hm, I seem to change my mind every day, I accepted we were going down, then I'm defiant, but if we continue in this way then we will go down.

I think we can stay up, I just don't know if we will stay up...

Only an opinion but hopefully 23 points here, probably complete blind optimism though.

Exeter (a)   1
Carlisle (h)   3
Southampton (a)  0
Walsall (h)    3
Plymouth (a)   3
Daggers (h)   3
Huddersfield (a)  0
Brighton (a)    0
Hartlepool (h) 1
Brentford (a)   1
Franchise (h)   3
Notts County (h)  3
Sheffield Wednesday (a) 0
Oldham (h)  1
Tranmere (a)  1

I doubt very much we'll go on an unbeaten home run...

Didn't realise I'd done that. Like I said blind optimism, but then again we have looked more solid at home and have only! Lost 5 this season. Bit of luck and a bit of confidence, me might..

Walking out of Colchester I felt totally robbed but very entertained and strangely confident.

As well as totally dominating them in every area, we were more up for it, first to every ball, and played some lovely stuff going forwards. They hardly got into our half until the last 10 minutes. Our heads didn't drop when they scored - and at last we have a front 2 who look like they might be a partnership, and who work their socks off defending from the front.

If Colchester are serious promotion contenders then I think there's no-one we should be scared of (well, apart from Brighton, maybe) and a lot more than 12 points available.

I think we need to win virtually all our home games to stay up to be honest. :(

I feel sick at the thought of us going down and those lot down the A420 going up.

That would be horrendous. Trying to not even entertain the possibility.

The Pox fans have already started gloating.

 Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism and support, but it doesn't escape the fact that after 31 games we've got the lowest Div 3 points total for at least 50 years, possibly longer.

 Which tells us, that we've gone from being merely a bit shit, to being totally shit.  That is a very difficult place to escape from....certainly failure to win either of the next 2 more or less condemns us, but it's something I accepted a while back.

Seems a pretty fair comment.

Averaging 1 point a game, need 1.5 for the rest of the season, the team needs a stimulus for this to start happening and I can't see anyway that this is going to happen until a change is made.

I have given up all hope unfortunately as I don't think the board will make a change.

Sums up my thoughts perfectley Berniman.

The team need something to get them going again, they dont seem to want to play for Wilson anymore, lets hope that changes because, as you said, I would be surprised if they changed it now.

IF.....that's true then things won't change until he goes, Meaning he needs to go for us to have a chance of staying up, What would the board rather? Pay him off or go down?!

But there is zero evidence for it...Wilson has shown with the sales of Cox, Austin, Morrison, Greer and well not sold, Paynter, that his methods can improve a player and lead to a lucrative move, which is a motivation for most players.  Unfortunately some of the others have not done enough to put themselves in the market place as yet. This though is the clear strategy and explains why the Board are staying loyal...they want to see the likes of LFJ, Cuthbert, Flint, Misun, Kennedy, Caddis, Ferry, Ritchie, Benyon and possibly Obika if he becomes permanent have value added.

For a number of reasons, most of which we know not, the project is presently stalled.

I'm with DV. I've been through the remaining games and can't get past a base case of 49/50 points. I'm hoping Misun, Obika and Benyon can kick us on and get us out of trouble. I'm also gambling on it being a pretty crap league and that others are at least as bad as us.

Nice to see the dismal misery has permeated this thread as well. Another to ignore.

Walsall, Daggers and Plymouth all in a row soon. Those are the 3 games that will decide it for me. Personally though at the moment i'm thinking we don't have enough. We still have to go Huddersfield, Saints and bloody Brighton for a start.

Not forgetting Wednesday too!

They're a bit poo though to be fair. That said still a tough place to go.

To be fair with our form against the top sides vs the bottom sides this season it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we get more points out of the games against Udders Saints and Brighton.

I certainly think we can stay up. Yes, we are in a shit situation (obviously) but that doesn't mean we can't get out of it. If we were a really bad team who were clearly not good enough for this division then yes, I would be resigned to relegation and it wouldn't honestly bother me that much. Neither of those things are true though (we're a good team who have played badly too often. That is not the same as a bad team) and for those reasons I would be fucking gutted if we do go down. Most of us have been following football in general for a a hell of a long team and we've all seen teams get out of worse situations than ours.

I just do not see the point on giving up and resigning myself to relegation. I can't think like that and I won't.

How exactly are we a good team? Our record is pretty poor this season. We're in the bottom 4 for a reason. For me all this bollocks about us having a good team is exactly that. If we were indeed that good we wouldn't be where we are now.

That's something called my opinion. And what I actually said was, 'we are a good team playing badly'. We have played very well on a number of occasions. This leads me to believe that we are essentially a good team. The performance at Charlton for example, was not us playing above ourselves, that was just what the players are capable of. Unfortunately, on more occasions we have played poorly. I am fucked if I know the reasons but this is of course why we are in the bottom four. I have seen (as we probably all have) many, many really poor Town teams over the years and if I thought this team was anywhere near as bad as any of those then I would have have given up by now but I don't and I haven't. I hope this clarifies my position.

Hate to say it, but what goes around comes around...

How many people on here have 'gloated'?

As long as the players are confident that's all that matters, as soon as they lose the belief its game over.

I'm choosing to believe they are confident of getting out of this.

True. When they went out of the league and when they fucked up against Exeter I enjoyed it immensely.

Exeter (a) - 0
Carlisle (h) - 3
Southampton (a) - 0
Walsall (h) - 3
Plymouth (a) - 3
Daggers (h) - 3
Huddersfield (a) - 0
Brighton (a) - 0
Hartlepool (h) - 3
Brentford (a) - 0
Franchise (h) - 0
Notts County (h) - 3
Sheffield Wednesday (a) - 0
Oldham (h) - 0
Tranmere (a) - 1

So I'm predicting 19 points, which probably won't be enough. Like many others I've been resigned to it for a couple of weeks, but still harbour a little glimmer of hope that we'll escape.

What I'd like to see now is the board acknowledging that relegation is a very real possibility and giving some sort of comment on how big a set back they see it as. I'm presuming that, as they have kept faith with Wilson and were prepared to let Austin go when a lot of people felt his goals were the only thing that was going to keep us up, they won't see it as a total disaster and have contingency plans in place to allow us to bounce back.

Exeter (a) - 0
Carlisle (h) - 3
Southampton (a) - 0
Walsall (h) - 3
Plymouth (a) - 1
Daggers (h) - 3
Huddersfield (a) - 0
Brighton (a) - 0
Hartlepool (h) - 3
Brentford (a) - 0
Franchise (h) - 1
Notts County (h) - 3
Sheffield Wednesday (a) - 0
Oldham (h) - 0
Tranmere (a) - 1

17 points.

Exeter-1
Carlisle-1
Saints-0
Walsall-3
Plymouth-1
Daggers-3
Hudds-1
Brighton-0
H/Pool-3
Brentford-1
Franchise-3
Notts C-3
Wednesday-1
Oldham-3
Tranmere-1...........25 for me......may just do it.

Bloody hell leefer - 2 defeats for the rest of the season - we had that last week alone. I admire your optimism and I hope you are right. I'm going along the same lines as barnard and even that may be optimistic. . 

I think Hudds away and brighton away will crush us if i'm honest unless we regain some form before hand.

If we are still just grabbing a point here and there then get absolutely smashed by those 2 teams then that is it imo.

We need to get a run started now so we can afford to lose against those types of teams.

Course we will probably lose more than two......but to be honest i have put a lot of draws down......1 extra win will count for three draws so lets hope we get three draws tomorow night ;)

I like your logic leefer - here's hoping .................rather than expecting

Agreed.......a win tomorrow will have us buzzin for Saturday.......and v Saints.

Totally agree with this.  The Board have been strangely quiet.

I still have a faint glimmer of hope, not really sure why.  To be honest though I'd have a far bigger glimmer if Wilson wasn't in charge still.

When a player wants to go...you make hay and get the best possible deal for the club....nothing wrong in that.....Austin wanted out.

The problem has been replacing the outgoing player's...........Pericard...for Paynter......Benyon for Austin......to early to say if Elliot will do the buisness....fact is he was second choice behind Mason...........we should have went and got a proven scorer at this level or higher....course it could have been an expensive mistake...but so is relegation.

aRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

For fuck's sake Leefer, the lad has only played 2 games AND he's scored a goal.

Beeejaysus!

We missed our chance for a proven goalscorer

:clap:

Who do you mean Si?

Me too  ::)

I believe si is referring to that young trialist we never signed.

People are not expecting us to go to Brighton, Huddersfield etc. and get anything but the way football is, we'll probably draw against Walsall and Daggers at Home and pick up Six points at Brighton and Huddersfield.

I honestly think we'll be safe with a few games to spare, I'll be the first one to admit that I was wrong if we don't but I don't think we'll get relegated, we'll finish around 14.

We will beat brighton and stay up.

Anyone seeing past a draw tomorrow night is clearly deluded.  What is it now?  Last 4 games against them?

I'm 90% confident that we'll be fine, last few performances have been pretty decent despite the results.  As someone else said, seems the players have realised their in a scrap.  Now I want to see a consistent team selection which for me is one of the reasons we've struggled.  Last season you could pretty much pick the team that would play for the next 3 games.

....and looked pretty good at Colchester I thought :nod:

Or Dean Ashton?

today i'm about 30-70 that we'll stay up.
this is subject to change though

This is such bullshit. If that was the case why the positive reaction from everyone that went to Colchester? The adver have been pretty damning in the last couple of weeks and even they were full of praise.

People repeat the same tired bullshit lines that have been going on all season. (here comes the inevitable comparison to Wilson)

My Staying Up Probability Indicator currently stands at 20%.  A win tonight would see that edge up to 25%, maybe even slightly higher.

Interesting to see on FF that most other clubs have us as not going down, some even as high as 16th.

I wish I shared their confidence.

SO many potentials for droll sarcasm, thinking about it you're probably right.

My tongue was firmly in cheek there. Si Pie did seem to be the chief proponent of that particular rumour at the time though.

Reported on South West news tonight that Plymouth Argyle had not gone into administration, but seemed to intimate (between the lines)that they might on Monday - you heard it hear first  :hmmm:

would argyle lose their points this season or next then? next season is no bloody good to us.

This season if it's within the next month or so. Sorry state of affairs of we, of all clubs, want another into administration.  Look after no 1 I suppose...

Once administration is confirmed I think it is an automatic penalty for this season - Leeds tried to bypass that and got clobbered for the next season, as did Southampton.

If the points would keep them up, don't they get deducted this season, but if they'd go down even with the deduction don't they get them next season? (I think I'm making this up.)

Were not going to get relegated regardless of whether Argyle go in to administration or not. I think we'll finish above them whatever happens.

I think so yes. Leeds tried to go into administration at half time when they knew they were going to get relegated instead of going into administration after the game knowing that the points deduction would come the next season.

In the end the FL deducted them 25 points (I think) for the start of the new season?

Nah they lost 10 at the end of the season they went down and started on -15. I think...

I thought it was more than that. I remember Wise coming out and criticising the FL because of the deduction. They were quality that year and got to the PO final. Without the deduction they would have finished in the top two.

Edit: Your right, -15 they started on.

If they go into Admin they'll get the points penalty this season right now because they could stay up.  If they wait until they are down, then it will go into next season.  It is aimed to be maximum penalty.

If they get into Admin, it's because they lived beyond their means.  For our strategy to work long term, then this type of penalty must be kept and enforced without compassion.  The club has had a better squad than they could afford, so should have offloaded players much sooner and thus got worse results.  I'd go as far as to say it should be more, and yes, I'd have to accept it if it was us in that situation.  We actually got away with a shit load by going into admin so often.  There are probably quite a few clubs still gambling like Plymouth have.

Yeah we must've got quite lucky, all those rules came in just as we started to get in the clear didn't they?

I think Rotheram were the first club to have points deducted. I think.

Mystic Scilly strikes again - I think on Saturday we will win & and my mystic mojo will fail  :(

Yeah I can see it now Big Vince is gonna come back and save us !!  :suicide:

Will stay up on the last day

You know that seeing something on the TV news doesn't really require any kind of psychic power right? Just a telly...

It is the Scilly Isles. Its practically some kind of witchcraft there.

Yeah thats very true, it has been on the local news down this neck of the woods for well over a month that Plymouth were on the verge of going into admin.

God - you guys really are funny

They've not been well.

Bad time of the week for us all - exactly between two defeats 8)

We're here all week..

Go back to building your wicker man