New beginnings - 25% Truth, 80% Bollocks

[Posh Red]

Ah yes he did! I forgot about that. His bid supposedly being better than Able's £7mn offer.

But isn’t the whole point that Able never actually offered £7m+, thanks to inside info (presumably from Austin) Clem was aware what the actual agreed selling price was. So he was in a position to better that.

I’m assuming it was Power that leaked the £7m figure to the press, just like he leaked info about us trying to sign players who we were never really going to sign.

[ThreeDrawsMentality]

But isn’t the whole point that Able never actually offered £7m+, thanks to inside info (presumably from Austin) Clem was aware what the actual agreed selling price was. So he was in a position to better that.

I’m assuming it was Power that leaked the £7m figure to the press, just like he leaked info about us trying to sign players who we were never really going to sign.

So many hypotheticals. Every chance at that point of expression of interest for £7mn and Bogle sell on that Able were legit, Keravouri and the lawyer firm etc were real people, but yeah we know that at some point it did become Curran's vehicle.

[Mooneyraker]

So many hypotheticals. Every chance at that point of expression of interest for £7mn and Bogle sell on that Able were legit, Keravouri and the lawyer firm etc were real people, but yeah we know that at some point it did become Curran's vehicle.

It's been alleged and winked at by ITKers but do we 'know'?

[Batch]

For the life of me I cannot work out how this is the case.

Nobody can. There's no information in the accounts released that help AFAIK.

What we really need to know is what's the day-to-day picture when all historical debt is converted to money owed to Clem? Obviously it'll fluctuate with infrastructure and transfer fee (!) payments.

Also, did he confirm the money "loanded" by 'keily' and secured with shares incur interest?

nothing wrong with Clem making his money back  + a bit of interest when the club is sold btw - more that the financial health of the club isn't clear to me.

[Bennett]

That's where finding out the terms of the loan/shares for Keily gets interesting (to me at least).
If Clem borrowed the dosh from Keily to pay off the debentures are the club liable for any payments?

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Whatever has been borrowed will attract interest surely. You can get 5-6% in a bog standard savings account nowadays so I’d expect it’d be more than that. I have it in my mind Power was charging 14% on anything ‘lent’ to the club - I may have made that up!

At 10% that would be adding £200,000 to the debt every year.

[Batch]

At least it would explain some of the losses

[Mooneyraker]

You'd think that would have to appear on the Monthly Nonsense infographic though...

[RobertT]

The problem we have, and why a proper review of the financial accounts by the Trust seemed a good idea, is that nothing Clem has said has been backed up by actual data in recent times, until data comes out and forces a change of tune.

The share transfer is evidenced by documents at Companies House, nothing on how the money flowed is available to view.  All we have is the word of a bullshitter that it was a loan.  He says the shares were used as security but no charges have been listed at Companies House against any of the vehicles used to run the club.  That doesn't mean it is untrue, there could be a separate loan document listing the terms, but we simply do not know, which is not a great place to be for a club pretending to be open and transparent.

In terms of the general finances, nothing produced to date supports a claim of a business losing up to 1m per year, not yet.  The accounts show a profit for the 21/22 season.  We do not have anything produced to give us much of a clue about 22/23 as yet, and if we need to wait for official accounts, that won't happen for months yet.

To the value of the business - clearly he will want the debt situation crystalised if selling.  He and/or others have loaned the business up to 7m, including the Debenture repayment.  Clem's words suggest he likely plonked 4m plus in, then you add the Debenture deal, so someone is owed money there.  On the flip side, Clem/the business were also gifted half the County Ground, so should now be recording a new asset on the books, alongside a revalued lease agreement.  Gillingham recently revalued their ground in their accounts and it increased their assets by millions as a result.  The County Ground comes with restrictions and it's only 50% + 200 year lease, so won't be the same amount, but it won't be pocket change either.

On that basis, it's not unlikely that a new owner would need to come to a deal in the 10m ball park.  Not necessarily all upfront, but they need to factor in that valuation over time to determine if they felt they had an ROI, or a loss they could handle.  If he could get Planning permission on something, that would enhance the value and maybe make it more appealing to outside investment as well.

[Mooneyraker]

The problem we have, and why a proper review of the financial accounts by the Trust seemed a good idea, is that nothing Clem has said has been backed up by actual data in recent times, until data comes out and forces a change of tune.

The share transfer is evidenced by documents at Companies House, nothing on how the money flowed is available to view.  All we have is the word of a bullshitter that it was a loan.  He says the shares were used as security but no charges have been listed at Companies House against any of the vehicles used to run the club.  That doesn't mean it is untrue, there could be a separate loan document listing the terms, but we simply do not know, which is not a great place to be for a club pretending to be open and transparent.

In terms of the general finances, nothing produced to date supports a claim of a business losing up to 1m per year, not yet.  The accounts show a profit for the 21/22 season.  We do not have anything produced to give us much of a clue about 22/23 as yet, and if we need to wait for official accounts, that won't happen for months yet.

To the value of the business - clearly he will want the debt situation crystalised if selling.  He and/or others have loaned the business up to 7m, including the Debenture repayment.  Clem's words suggest he likely plonked 4m plus in, then you add the Debenture deal, so someone is owed money there.  On the flip side, Clem/the business were also gifted half the County Ground, so should now be recording a new asset on the books, alongside a revalued lease agreement.  Gillingham recently revalued their ground in their accounts and it increased their assets by millions as a result.  The County Ground comes with restrictions and it's only 50% + 200 year lease, so won't be the same amount, but it won't be pocket change either.

On that basis, it's not unlikely that a new owner would need to come to a deal in the 10m ball park.  Not necessarily all upfront, but they need to factor in that valuation over time to determine if they felt they had an ROI, or a loss they could handle.  If he could get Planning permission on something, that would enhance the value and maybe make it more appealing to outside investment as well.

I think even if someone at the Trust is the equivalent of the last Japanese soldier in the jungle, still fighting on for 'Real Deal' Clem, we can all agree that the open and transparent mantra is as dead as the Dodo.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Are you saying that what happens on the pitch - remaining L2, or, jokingly, promotion - wouldn’t have much effect on any price a buyer would be willing to pay. Is it, for a buyer, purely the here and now.

[RobertT]

Are you saying that what happens on the pitch - remaining L2, or, jokingly, promotion - wouldn’t have much effect on any price a buyer would be willing to pay. Is it, for a buyer, purely the here and now.

Someone selling can try and include intangible value, but it's a tough sell.

in reality, the standard ways of valuing a business would return a very small number - the assets, even adding in the County Ground share and a new lease, will be outweighed by the debt.  The other method is usually a Price Earning Ratio, so a multiple of four or five on the profits of the business, or a smaller ratio on the Revenue.  We don't really make money, so that hinders any valuation taking that method.

Ultimately, I think a case would be made for a couple of million to equate to the CG value and you'd show some accounts that have us at break even, so operationally sound.  Then you strike a deal for how the debt will be repaid over a period of years by the new owner if they purchased the club - so it would be a few million to get the business and knowingly taking on 7m in debt.  That debt moves from being a Directors Loan to a structured payment terms loan.  Any new owner would add the two together to work out if they felt it was worth it.  The Glazers paid next to nothing for Man Utd - they loaded up with the debt, which they knew the club would payback through operations.  If a buyer thought they could turn 500k a year in profit, they'd be able to pay back their investment and cover the loans.  Clem would likely insist on securing the debt on exit, if he was sensible, like Black did.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

Nobody can. There's no information in the accounts released that help AFAIK.

What we really need to know is what's the day-to-day picture when all historical debt is converted to money owed to Clem? Obviously it'll fluctuate with infrastructure and transfer fee (!) payments.

Also, did he confirm the money "loanded" by 'keily' and secured with shares incur interest?

nothing wrong with Clem making his money back  + a bit of interest when the club is sold btw - more that the financial health of the club isn't clear to me.

Exactly.

High ticket prices, high attendance, merch selling well, yet a very clear non competitive budget with the top 7. The Trust need to figure out why this is. If they're looking over the books they need to figure it out.

Is there something sinister going like like are we paying large consultancy fees to some of the UKs previous most wanted? Are we reducing the debt owed to Clem? What is going on and why do we seemingly not have a pot to piss in when the fans have backed the club time and time again.

This really defines if the trust is fit for purpose or not. Need answers.

[4D]

No rent anymore too.

[RobertT]

No rent anymore too.

We pay half the rent we used to, but we do still pay rent.  It's about 60k a year I think.