Coronavirus

[pauld]

FWIW, as I understand it the tiers are not just related to prevalence of infection but also to hospital capacity and the likelihood of hospitals in the are being overwhelmed. So that would include things like %age occupancy of ICU beds, plus the severity as well as prevalence of infection.

[theakston2k]

FWIW, as I understand it the tiers are not just related to prevalence of infection but also to hospital capacity and the likelihood of hospitals in the are being overwhelmed. So that would include things like %age occupancy of ICU beds, plus the severity as well as prevalence of infection.

Like I said both Glos and Wilts are below 9%, when you compare it to others where they are 15%+ I still can't see any justification for moving up a tier. As Dave said all the countywide indicators are improving so to then move into tier 3 would be a massive own goal IMO and make people question the validity.

[pauld]

Like I said both Glos and Wilts are below 9%, when you compare it to others where they are 15%+ I still can't see any justification for moving up a tier. As Dave said all the countywide indicators are improving so to then move into tier 3 would be a massive own goal IMO and make people question the validity.

I don't know the full criteria being used, and not necessarily here to defend the system, just pointing out it's not as simple as numbers of infections. Severity may well have an impact too - if you have an area where they are finding comparatively few cases compared to other areas but of greater severity, you could see that that might cause a problem in terms of the proportionately smaller number of ICU beds compared to general hospital capacity, for example. I don't think you can judge the overall assessment from the figures that have been published because we don't know the criteria being used. Which, as you say, is frustratingly opaque.

[Batch]

I can't see anything to suggest we and Gloucestershire will move tiers, but given the whole thing is done behind closed doors, you can only guess.

There is a post lockdown uptick, obviously. but that's national

[Chunkyhair]

I think all of the above posts point to the fact that the decision making thoughout the pandemic has been at times (mostly in fact) lacking in logic/transparency and is difficult to understand.  The current specualtion re Tier changes just evidences that further.  I didn't expect anywhere to drop to Tier 1 this week but with all the improvements in numbers, by and large, over the last month I didn't expect us to be seeing debates about areas going up a tier (London/Essex excepted).

This just leads to frustration and lack of understanding (hence the debate on here), and then folks either willfully or out of ignorance break the rules.   

[Batch]

New varient found. Spreading faster than original. Probably reason for spike in London/SE but has been detected in 60 authorities.

No indication it will be more deadly or not respond to vaccine.

[Nemo]

Oh grand

[Bogus Dave]

Err, I mean it was always going to do that. Viruses mutate, and the mutations are less deadly than the previous version

This might not even be bad news, particularly if the vaccine isn’t affected

[Batch]

long term it could make little difference.

but it's promoted the spread and lead to SE entering tier 3.

[horlock07]

I just hope it has seen the agreed memo to take time off over Christmas, it really is insane to be placing areas into Tier 3, then opening up the week after!

[pauld]

I just hope it has seen the agreed memo to take time off over Christmas, it really is insane to be placing areas into Tier 3, then opening up the week after!

From a public health perspective of course. But the government's policy has long since been driven by political considerations above public health.

[Nemo]

I'm not usually given to sympathising with the government but the Christmas thing is genuinely difficult. We are staying in London for Christmas, but everyone else I know is travelling home to every corner of the country to see relatives. If the rules changed to ban them I think 80% would go anyway. It's one of those things where they have to ask is it better to set the rules at a level that most might follow even if that's not really high enough? God knows I wouldn't want to be the PM that cancelled Christmas.

[theakston2k]

I'm not usually given to sympathising with the government but the Christmas thing is genuinely difficult. We are staying in London for Christmas, but everyone else I know is travelling home to every corner of the country to see relatives. If the rules changed to ban them I think 80% would go anyway. It's one of those things where they have to ask is it better to set the rules at a level that most might follow even if that's not really high enough? God knows I wouldn't want to be the PM that cancelled Christmas.

Agreed, I'd be going to my parents Christmas day regardless of the rules and would imagine that a large % of the population would do the same. We've had almost 10 months of this now so heaven forbid people want to see their family, people can make their own decision on the risk. It's the worst time of the year for mental health as it is, if Christmas was effectively banned the mental health issues that result could be just as destructive as the virus itself.

[Panda Paws]

Since we came out of Lockdown II and the pubs reopened, I don't know one person in London who hasn't been out on the piss, for dinner etc. It's absolutely no surprise the rates have changed so significantly.

On Xmas, you'd imagine they know people are going to push the boundaries so you set the bar with that margin for breaches built in.

Doesn't change Xmas day for us at all, but we've got to make a call whether to break the rules and see my parents or not and that's shit.

I think public compliance is at an all-time low - no matter what rules are in place, people will always get away with as much as possible. If we can't be trusted to follow guidelines, closing the hospitality industry is the only option and when people complain about job losses etc, maybe they should look in the mirror and reflect on the fact that there's a chance these coming closures wouldn't be necessary if we'd all followed the most recent guidelines.

[horlock07]

It seems to be all over the place, we seem to be suffering a spike up here (rural) but many of the surrounding towns are going down?