Title: Remaining Games Post by: Flashheart on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 09:05:15 I thought I'd make a thread, and I'll keep it updated as games are played.
-------------------------------------------- I did some numbers. These are the average league positions of who the top 4 have yet to play Swindon 15.06 Exeter 13.52 Crewe 13.00 Plymouth 12.83 I don't know what you can make of that, other than we have the easiest run in on paper. I also went through and guessed the points haul of each team in their remaining games. It was quite rudimentary - going by nothing more than the opposition's league position and whether the game is home or away. The final point tallies were: Swindon 96 Exeter 95 Plymouth 95 Crewe 90 This assumes a draw on Saturday - big game. I might get around to adding a couple more teams because there's others still in the mix, but I need to get some work done. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: pauld on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:00:06 I thought I'd make a thread, and I'll keep it updated as games are played. That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl)-------------------------------------------- I did some numbers. These are the average league positions of who the top 4 have yet to play Swindon 15.06 Exeter 13.52 Crewe 13.00 Plymouth 12.83 I don't know what you can make of that, other than we have the easiest run in on paper. I also went through and guessed the points haul of each team in their remaining games. It was quite rudimentary - going by nothing more than the opposition's league position and whether the game is home or away. The final point tallies were: Swindon 96 Exeter 95 Plymouth 95 Crewe 90 This assumes a draw on Saturday - big game. I might get around to adding a couple more teams because there's others still in the mix, but I need to get some work done. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: 4D on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:00:37 I reckon we'll get 102 ;)
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Reg Smeeton on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:01:22 That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl) Flasher pointed out it is his guesswork.... Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Flashheart on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:02:46 My guesswork mainly meant giving 3 points in all matches against teams lower down, so there will likely be more points dropped than I have predicted.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: singingiiiffy on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:05:00 That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl) Thanks for the compliment I guess! It was in my promotion points thread of ppg: 10 Season average for auto 81 points average 1.76 ppg Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: pauld on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:05:05 Fair enough. I'm going on 80+ for autos so 24 more points needed to scrape into that kind of zone, maybe a few more to guarantee it. 8 wins.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: pauld on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:06:25 Thanks for the compliment I guess! It was in my promotion points thread of ppg: Ha ha, it was indirectly down to your post. After seeing your post, I wanted to check and did go and check it somewhere I now can't remember. I will never doubt your stats again :)10 Season average for auto 81 points average 1.76 ppg Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: singingiiiffy on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:07:59 My guesswork mainly meant giving 3 points in all matches against teams lower down, so there will likely be more points dropped than I have predicted. May as well merge the threads then its all in one. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Bob's Orange on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:13:21 Remaining games.
Exeter (H) Carlisle (A) Northampton (A) Scunthorpe (H) Grimsby (H) Mansfield (A) FGR (H) Oldham (A) Stevenage (A) Crawley (H) Walsall (A) Salford (H) Cheltenham (H) Morecambe (A) Orient (H) Macclesfield (A) Surely we can get enough points to go up from that lot? Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: pauld on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:14:56 Remaining games. 8 wins, 9 to be sure. Throw in some Luke Williams 1/3 wins and we'll be fineExeter (H) Carlisle (A) Northampton (A) Scunthorpe (H) Grimsby (H) Mansfield (A) FGR (H) Oldham (A) Stevenage (A) Crawley (H) Walsall (A) Salford (H) Cheltenham (H) Morecambe (A) Orient (H) Macclesfield (A) Surely we can get enough points to go up from that lot? Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Panda Paws on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:18:12 There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:03 We should not even slightly fear any of those, but every team can beat ever team on their day, all it takes is 1 defensive blunder or fluke goal (Northampton for example).
I think we should win 11 of those but they are all very winnable if we pull together and get a goalscorer in, whether thans Doyle/Yates/Muskwe it matters not, but yesterday showed we badly miss a proper goalscorer. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:15 There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points. Great minds ;)Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: @mwooly63 on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:59 There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points. I reckon 35 from that lot :pint: *touches wood Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Flashheart on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:38:34 Feel free to use this for your own predictions. It's a simple sheet, but it'll do. I might jazz it up a bit later - or I might not.
Ignore my predictions that are one there already. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: dogs on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:42:13 Exeter (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 1 Northampton (A) 0 Scunthorpe (H) 1 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 1 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 0 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 1 Cheltenham (H) 0 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 3 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Panda Paws on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:50:50 Exeter (H) 1
Carlisle (A) 0 Northampton (A) 0 --- MELTDOWN --- Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 3 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 1 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 3 Cheltenham (H) 1 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 3 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:57:53 Exeter (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 3 Northampton (A) 1 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 1 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 1 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 3 Cheltenham (H) 1 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 1 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Tails on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:59:30 If you have a spare 10-15 minutes
https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-league-two/ Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: RobertT on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:05:36 After the Mansfield game (which still sounds like it would be tough, but who knows with them) you can make a solid case for winning every game (we probably won't). Couple of tough away fixtures before that (but again, on balance we can get points from them if we play to our strengths).
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:07:55 Exeter (H) 3 Carlisle (A) 3 Northampton (A) 3 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 3 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 3 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 3 Cheltenham (H) 3 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 3 Macclesfield (A) 3 Have it! Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:08:15 Exeter (H) 3 Don't start again!Carlisle (A) 3 Northampton (A) 3 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 3 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 3 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 3 Cheltenham (H) 3 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 3 Macclesfield (A) 3 Have it! A quick reminder.... I’ll revisit this thread later this evening with a fucking humongous I TOLD YOU SO! Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:09:26 You know it makes sense!
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: 4D on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:11:05 Exeter (H) 1
Carlisle (A) 1 Northampton (A) 0 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 1 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 1 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 0 Cheltenham (H) 0 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 1 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:13:28 Exeter (H) 1 Leaving us on 81 points, probably not enough for Autos in your opinion then mate?Carlisle (A) 1 Northampton (A) 0 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 1 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 1 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 0 Cheltenham (H) 0 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 1 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:18:01 3rd place points totals since 2010 in League 2.
2019 79 2018 84 2017 85 2016 85 2015 85 2014 81 2013 78 2012 84 2011 80 The average being 82 over the 9 years. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: 4D on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:21:57 Leaving us on 81 points, probably not enough for Autos in your opinion then mate? I'm confident the others will drop more points looking at their remaining fixtures. 81 for champions :) Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: theakston2k on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:32:45 Exeter (H) 1 You only expect us to get a combined 1 point from Cheltenham, Salford and Orient at home. I don’t really get that...Carlisle (A) 1 Northampton (A) 0 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 1 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 1 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 0 Cheltenham (H) 0 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 1 Macclesfield (A) 3 Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Peter Venkman on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:38:57 I'm confident the others will drop more points looking at their remaining fixtures. 81 for champions :) Be the lowest points total for a L2 champions ever! we will make history!Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: pauld on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:47:54 You only expect us to get a combined 1 point from Cheltenham, Salford and Orient at home. I don’t really get that... He's obviously planning to go to all those games :) #jinxTitle: Re: Remaining Games Post by: theakston2k on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 13:51:58 He's obviously planning to go to all those games :) #jinx Can we not get him banned for the remainder of the season or something?Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: 4D on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 14:25:42 * My record is good now :toocool:
* for the last 6 games or so Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: THE FLASH on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 23:29:54 * My record is good now :toocool: * for the last 6 games or so Defo Zero to Hero status....A Talisman... Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: 4D on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 23:47:10 Defo Zero to Hero status....A Talisman... Free beer for life? :) Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Flashheart on Saturday, February 1, 2020, 16:49:44 Exeter lost today
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Saturday, February 1, 2020, 16:55:55 Exeter (H) 3 1 down. 15 to goCarlisle (A) 3 Northampton (A) 3 Scunthorpe (H) 3 Grimsby (H) 3 Mansfield (A) 3 FGR (H) 3 Oldham (A) 3 Stevenage (A) 3 Crawley (H) 3 Walsall (A) 3 Salford (H) 3 Cheltenham (H) 3 Morecambe (A) 3 Orient (H) 3 Macclesfield (A) 3 Have it! Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: RobertT on Saturday, February 1, 2020, 17:00:35 Carl;isle have had a couple of good results but their defence looks a bit ropey and we have a couple of ex-players of theirs who are on for some goals I think.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: RobertT on Wednesday, February 5, 2020, 20:25:04 Crewe have 7 games against top 10 remaining
Plymouth have 7 Exeter have 5 Northampton have 9 - all other top ten teams! Swindon have 3, with 2 of them being at home after Northampton We've still got to keep racking up points against those in the bottom half, but the top sides are going to struggle given they are all going to be taking points off of each other. It's certainly ours to lose from here. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Reg Smeeton on Wednesday, February 5, 2020, 20:30:51 Crewe have 7 games against top 10 remaining Plymouth have 7 Exeter have 5 Northampton have 9 - all other top ten teams! Swindon have 3, with 2 of them being at home after Northampton We've still got to keep racking up points against those in the bottom half, but the top sides are going to struggle given they are all going to be taking points off of each other. It's certainly ours to lose from here. Yes I think that's right.... it's why we need to keep winning games. One of the home games is Numb. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Saxondale on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 09:34:58 A thought on the lower teams. Given that only 1 team are going down and that place seems to be held by Stevenage, maybe the old cliche that everyone is fighting for something later in the season is possibly not the case this season.
I'd possibly say that teams from 13 to 21 arent really at risk of going down or getting into the playoff and we've got a fair amount of them to play. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Tails on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 09:36:37 A thought on the lower teams. Given that only 1 team are going down and that place seems to be held by Stevenage, maybe the old cliche that everyone is fighting for something later in the season is possibly not the case this season. I'd possibly say that teams from 13 to 21 arent really at risk of going down or getting into the playoff and we've got a fair amount of them to play. This is usually where we fall down! Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Bob's Orange on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 09:43:04 This is usually where we fall down! Until this season where I think the stat is that we have beaten every team in the bottom 13 places or so far isn't it? Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Reg Smeeton on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 09:44:34 A thought on the lower teams. Given that only 1 team are going down and that place seems to be held by Stevenage, maybe the old cliche that everyone is fighting for something later in the season is possibly not the case this season. I'd possibly say that teams from 13 to 21 arent really at risk of going down or getting into the playoff and we've got a fair amount of them to play. It's a good point, but we also may have the random Macc situation to factor in. It's to our advantage if they get through the season.... if they do implode though then any pressure on the lesser lights disappears. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 18:09:10 Is Reg moonlighting?
https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/3-possibilities-that-could-cause-swindon-to-crumble-this-season/ Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: singingiiiffy on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 18:33:08 Is Reg moonlighting? https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/3-possibilities-that-could-cause-swindon-to-crumble-this-season/ what dribble. 3 causes- inconsistancy, injuires to doyle and yates and rivals win games. Einstein award for the chap that wrote that Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Oaksey Moonraker on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 18:33:40 Of course it could all go tits up at any point but likewise we could have a good week and put another 9 points. That would put us very close to guaranteeing a play off spot.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Batch on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 18:41:34 complacency problem, as shown in our results against bottom half teams..
oh Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: suttonred on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 19:05:43 Is Reg moonlighting? https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/3-possibilities-that-could-cause-swindon-to-crumble-this-season/ That is the worst site I have ever seen. Any content amongst the ads? Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: kirky69 on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 19:11:56 Of course it could all go tits up at any point but likewise we could have a good week and put another 9 points. That would put us very close to guaranteeing a play off spot. Indeed we could. However looking at the potential downside - which is less likely - is favoured by many as it is a typically English and Swindon thing to do. Half full or completely empty, I know which I prefer. Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 19:16:00 what dribble. 3 causes- inconsistancy, injuires to doyle and yates and rivals win games. Exactly. Those could just as easily happen to any other club.Einstein award for the chap that wrote that Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: RobertT on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 19:20:00 There is hope for all of us in journalism, it's probably worse than the Adver churn out these days.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: Flashheart on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 19:44:23 He's their top writer apparently.
(https://i.imgur.com/PgfJuiy.png) Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: RobertT on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 21:25:06 I imagine Chris Thorpe's article would have been, in it's entirety:
"Swindon are top of League Two, depending on results, they may not finish there" Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: theakston2k on Thursday, February 6, 2020, 21:44:40 Thing is we are not far off being in a position where we could field 2 entirely separate teams both off which would be at the top end of this league.
Title: Re: Remaining Games Post by: The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey on Friday, February 7, 2020, 04:14:02 He's their top writer apparently. Maybe because he’s an Exeter fan he felt the need to make himself feel better.(https://i.imgur.com/PgfJuiy.png) |