Thetownend.com

I thought I'd make a thread, and I'll keep it updated as games are played.

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I did some numbers.

These are the average league positions of who the top 4 have yet to play

Swindon   15.06
Exeter      13.52
Crewe      13.00
Plymouth  12.83

I don't know what you can make of that, other than we have the easiest run in on paper.

I also went through and guessed the points haul of each team in their remaining games. It was quite rudimentary - going by nothing more than the opposition's league position and whether the game is home or away. The final point tallies were:

Swindon   96
Exeter      95
Plymouth  95
Crewe      90

This assumes a draw on Saturday - big game.

I might get around to adding a couple more teams because there's others still in the mix, but I need to get some work done.

That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl)

I reckon we'll get 102  ;)

Flasher pointed out it is his guesswork....

My guesswork mainly meant giving 3 points in all matches against teams lower down, so there will likely be more points dropped than I have predicted.

Thanks for the compliment I guess! It was in my promotion points thread of ppg:

10 Season average for auto 81 points average 1.76 ppg

Fair enough. I'm going on 80+ for autos so 24 more points needed to scrape into that kind of zone, maybe a few more to guarantee it. 8 wins.

Ha ha, it was indirectly down to your post. After seeing your post, I wanted to check and did go and check it somewhere I now can't remember. I will never doubt your stats again :)

May as well merge the threads then its all in one.

Remaining games.

Exeter (H)
Carlisle (A)
Northampton (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Grimsby (H)
Mansfield (A)
FGR (H)
Oldham (A)
Stevenage (A)
Crawley (H)
Walsall (A)
Salford (H)
Cheltenham (H)
Morecambe (A)
Orient (H)
Macclesfield (A)

Surely we can get enough points to go up from that lot?

8 wins, 9 to be sure. Throw in some Luke Williams 1/3 wins and we'll be fine

There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points.

We should not even slightly fear any of those, but every team can beat ever team on their day, all it takes is 1 defensive blunder or fluke goal (Northampton for example).

I think we should win 11 of those but they are all very winnable if we pull together and get a goalscorer in, whether thans Doyle/Yates/Muskwe it matters not, but yesterday showed we badly miss a proper goalscorer.

Great minds ;)

I reckon 35 from that lot
 :pint:

*touches wood

Feel free to use this for your own predictions. It's a simple sheet, but it'll do. I might jazz it up a bit later - or I might not.

Ignore my predictions that are one there already.

Exeter (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 1
Northampton (A) 0
Scunthorpe (H) 1
Grimsby (H) 3
Mansfield (A) 1
FGR (H) 3
Oldham (A) 0
Stevenage (A) 3
Crawley (H) 3
Walsall (A) 3
Salford (H) 1
Cheltenham (H) 0
Morecambe (A) 3
Orient (H) 3
Macclesfield (A) 3

Exeter (H) 1
Carlisle (A) 0
Northampton (A) 0
---
MELTDOWN
---
Scunthorpe (H) 3
Grimsby (H) 3
Mansfield (A) 3
FGR (H) 3
Oldham (A) 1
Stevenage (A) 3
Crawley (H) 3
Walsall (A) 3
Salford (H) 3
Cheltenham (H) 1
Morecambe (A) 3
Orient (H) 3
Macclesfield (A) 3

Exeter (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 3
Northampton (A) 1
Scunthorpe (H) 3
Grimsby (H) 3
Mansfield (A) 1
FGR (H) 3
Oldham (A) 1
Stevenage (A) 3
Crawley (H) 3
Walsall (A) 3
Salford (H) 3
Cheltenham (H) 1
Morecambe (A) 3
Orient (H) 1
Macclesfield (A) 3

If you have a spare 10-15 minutes

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-league-two/

After the Mansfield game (which still sounds like it would be tough, but who knows with them) you can make a solid case for winning every game (we probably won't).  Couple of tough away fixtures before that (but again, on balance we can get points from them if we play to our strengths).

Exeter (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 3
Northampton (A) 3
Scunthorpe (H) 3
Grimsby (H) 3
Mansfield (A) 3
FGR (H) 3
Oldham (A) 3
Stevenage (A) 3
Crawley (H) 3
Walsall (A) 3
Salford (H) 3
Cheltenham (H) 3
Morecambe (A) 3
Orient (H) 3
Macclesfield (A) 3

Have it!

Don't start again!

A quick reminder....

You know it makes sense!

Exeter (H) 1
Carlisle (A) 1
Northampton (A) 0
Scunthorpe (H) 3
Grimsby (H) 3
Mansfield (A) 1
FGR (H) 3
Oldham (A) 1
Stevenage (A) 3
Crawley (H) 3
Walsall (A) 3
Salford (H) 0
Cheltenham (H) 0
Morecambe (A) 3
Orient (H) 1
Macclesfield (A) 3

Leaving us on 81 points, probably not enough for Autos in your opinion then mate?

3rd place points totals since 2010 in League 2.

2019 79
2018 84
2017 85
2016 85
2015 85
2014 81
2013 78
2012 84
2011 80

The average being 82 over the 9 years.

I'm confident the others will drop more points looking at their remaining fixtures. 81 for champions  :)

You only expect us to get a combined 1 point from Cheltenham, Salford and Orient at home. I don’t really get that...

Be the lowest points total for a L2 champions ever! we will make history!

He's obviously planning to go to all those games :) #jinx

Can we not get him banned for the remainder of the season or something?

* My record is good now  :toocool:


* for the last 6 games or so

Defo Zero to Hero status....A Talisman...

Free beer for life?  :)

Exeter lost today

1 down. 15 to go

Carl;isle have had a couple of good results but their defence looks a bit ropey and we have a couple of ex-players of theirs who are on for some goals I think.

Crewe have 7 games against top 10 remaining
Plymouth have 7
Exeter have 5
Northampton have 9 - all other top ten teams!

Swindon have 3, with 2 of them being at home after Northampton

We've still got to keep racking up points against those in the bottom half, but the top sides are going to struggle given they are all going to be taking points off of each other.  It's certainly ours to lose from here.

Yes I think that's right.... it's why we need to keep winning games. One of the home games is Numb.

A thought on the lower teams.  Given that only 1 team are going down and that place seems to be held by Stevenage, maybe the old cliche that everyone is fighting for something later in the season is possibly not the case this season.

I'd possibly say that teams from 13 to 21 arent really at risk of going down or getting into the playoff and we've got a fair amount of them to play.

This is usually where we fall down!

Until this season where I think the stat is that we have beaten every team in the bottom 13 places or so far isn't it?

It's a good point, but we also may have the random Macc situation to factor in. It's to our advantage if they get through the season.... if they do implode though then any pressure on the lesser lights disappears.

Is Reg moonlighting?

https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/3-possibilities-that-could-cause-swindon-to-crumble-this-season/

what dribble. 3 causes- inconsistancy, injuires to doyle and yates and rivals win games.
Einstein award for the chap that wrote that

Of course it could all go tits up at any point but likewise we could have a good week and put another 9 points. That would put us very close to guaranteeing a play off spot.

complacency problem, as shown in our results against bottom half teams..

oh

That is the worst site I have ever seen. Any content amongst the ads?

Indeed we could. However looking at the potential downside  - which is less likely - is favoured by many as it is a typically English and Swindon thing to do. Half full or completely empty, I know which I prefer.

Exactly. Those could just as easily happen to any other club.

There is hope for all of us in journalism, it's probably worse than the Adver churn out these days.

He's their top writer apparently.

(https://i.imgur.com/PgfJuiy.png)

I imagine Chris Thorpe's article would have been, in it's entirety:

"Swindon are top of League Two, depending on results, they may not finish there"

Thing is we are not far off being in a position where we could field 2 entirely separate teams both off which would be at the top end of this league.

Maybe because he’s an Exeter fan he felt the need to make himself feel better.