Scottish Independence

[Reg Smeeton]

There's another interesting factor in this - and that is that Scotland (in the event of a Yes vote) will have voted unilaterally to leave the UK.  And that is an entirely different scenario to one in which the whole of the UK had a vote, and everyone on both sides of the English/Scottish border mutually agreed to an amicable separation.  There will be approx 62 million UK residents who will not have actively voted for the break-up of the country they live in; and approx 2 million voters who will have.

A likely response from a good proportion of the 62 million who won’t have voted yes, around 95% of whom would live outside Scotland, would be 'Why should I pay for any of this?  I didn’t ask for it.  If you want to separate, Scotland, fine - but you can pay the costs of separation.'

Inevitably, there will be costs that the Continuing UK will have to foot.  But there would be very little appetite in the Continuing UK to pay for any more of those costs than is absolutely necessary or unavoidable.  Resentment against Scotland would be significant due to the disruption caused, and politicians on this side of the border would be obliged to take a very tough line in negotiations.

Animosity on both sides would probably build fairly quickly and the cordial relationship that currently exists would not last long.  Very sad.  But that’s the reality of separation.

This will become the key thing as the separation negotiations develop...the first knock on will be that the 2015 election will have to be postponed, as there is little point in Scottish MPs, taking up their seats for a matter of of few months, and little point in incurring the costs of an irrelevant General Election.

This will mean that our new situation will very much be an election issue in 2016....

[chalkies_shorts]

I'd like to see an English vote on the abolition of the Barnett formula. If they want to stay in the UK then they get the same per head as the rest of us. Why does my daughter rack up £9k per year in University fees while someone's daughter in Scotland doesn't. Why do the Welsh get free prescriptions but we don't. Thats not a very United Kingdom to me.

[Baggins]

Why does my daughter rack up £9k per year in University fees while someone's daughter in Scotland doesn't. Why do the Welsh get free prescriptions but we don't. Thats not a very United Kingdom to me.

Because those are devolved powers that the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly control.  Alternatively, you could ask why do English children get 15 hours of free education from the age of 3 when Welsh children only get 10 hours?  The SP and WA have a number of powers and their own budgets to address them - much like bin collections are under the control of local authorities and differ from council to council.

[dalumpimunki]

I'd like to see an English vote on the abolition of the Barnett formula. If they want to stay in the UK then they get the same per head as the rest of us. Why does my daughter rack up £9k per year in University fees while someone's daughter in Scotland doesn't. Why do the Welsh get free prescriptions but we don't. Thats not a very United Kingdom to me.

But "the rest of us" don't have the same level of public expenditure per head anyway. The variations in the the elements of public expenditure included in the BF (excluding stuff like defence etc.) between the various regions of England is even greater than that between England average and Scotland average.

Spend per head in London is even greater than that in Scotland. Same in the South West. It's the South East, Eastern and East Midlands that should be annoyed as they really lose out.

[4D]

Spend on services doesn't directly impact on Joe public's pocket though Lumpy, chalkies example does.

[Reg Smeeton]

 See the Establishment have wheeled out John Major, to write a piece probably in the Mail, outlining what the perils of the forthcoming Sweatie independence is really about.....namely the lose of Trident, our seat on the UN security council and Scottish regiments in the British Army.

[normy]

Yesterday on TV, a politician suggested that he was  in favour of  independence for Wales and NIreland as well as Scotland, leaving England on it's own and independent of the others. He thought it is coming to the end of big block countries and federations, and small countries are generally doing very well.  I was only half listening, but it got me thinking about more cans of worms opening up.  Could, and would,  Wales wish to be independent, for example?  I imagine that NIreland would have no interest in independence, but who knows?  

[kerry red]

See the Establishment have wheeled out John Major, to write a piece probably in the Mail, outlining what the perils of the forthcoming Sweatie independence is really about.....namely the lose of Trident, our seat on the UN security council and Scottish regiments in the British Army.

So, will the Jocks have to source their  own armed forces?

What of existing British military bases in Scotland?  I spent some time at  RAF Machrihanish in the 70s, got wrecked in the raunchy hotspots of Campbeltown.

surely there will be a bit of a jobs bonanza south of the border

[ExiledEric]

Audrey, there will be a massive jobs boost south of the border.  Standard Life has just confirmed that it has contingencies in place including transferring its business for non-Scottish clients to England.  Would involve an awful lot of jobs...

[Reg Smeeton]

So, will the Jocks have to source their  own armed forces?

What of existing British military bases in Scotland?  I spent some time at  RAF Machrihanish in the 70s, got wrecked in the raunchy hotspots of Campbeltown.

surely there will be a bit of a jobs bonanza south of the border

The Sweaties want to join NATO, and enjoy the security it brings, but want the removal of Trident, which is somewhat at odds with NATO policy....they also want to retain the names of Scottish regiments, for use in their domestic defence forces.

If they are permitted to join NATO, then doubtless deals will be done about the retention of some NATO (ie UK bases) on Sweatie soil....but from the military establishment point of view this will be a crushing defeat.

Scots are way over represented in the British Army, and doubtless many NO voters are from this tradition, so I'd imagine it highly likely there will new regiments formed, like the Gurkha regiments, which allow foreign nationals to fight in the British Army.

[@mwooly63]

Yesterday on TV, a politician suggested that he was  in favour of  independence for Wales and NIreland as well as Scotland, leaving England on it's own and independent of the others. He thought it is coming to the end of big block countries and federations, and small countries are generally doing very well.  I was only half listening, but it got me thinking about more cans of worms opening up.  Could, and would,  Wales wish to be independent, for example?  I imagine that NIreland would have no interest in independence, but who knows?  

Surely if Wales wants to go its own way then Cardiff/Swansea and the others will have to fuck off out the English pyramid as would technically be playing in a foreign league .

Every cloud and all that

[Honkytonk]

Wales is not a real country and has not been for hundreds of years, I really wish they'd come to terms with that. The English nation includes Wales. There was never a merging of two nations like there was with the Scotch, there was a simple conquest. There is no Welsh nation.

[Ardiles]

You've probably picked up that I'm no fan of Scottish independence, and that I think Scotland, England, Wales & NI would fare better together in a federal, devolved state.  But I think it's also fairly obvious that Scotland could function as an independent state if it voted that way.

Wales, on the other hand, would really struggle.  They don't have the critical mass and they're bound far too closely to England for it to make any sense to separate.  (For what it's worth, I think Scotland is also bound too closely to England for separation to make real sense...but maybe not in such a cut & dried way as for Wales.)  Wales could never be truly independent from England, even if it tried to be politically.  Complete non-starter.  And I think support for independence there is running at about 10% anyway.

[iffy]

Audrey, there will be a massive jobs boost south of the border.  Standard Life has just confirmed that it has contingencies in place including transferring its business for non-Scottish clients to England.  Would involve an awful lot of jobs...

If this isn't a wake-up call, I'm not sure what is. What is Salmond's response to this? He's got nothing.

[Ardiles]

If this isn't a wake-up call, I'm not sure what is. What is Salmond's response to this? He's got nothing.

Sadly, for a lot of people that seems to be enough.