(1) Even if we had a figure for deaths from severe cases of coronavirus, how deadly a virus is in severe cases tells us nothing about how deadly it is to catch. That's a complete red herring.
(2)I couldn't find a figure for global infections so I extrapolated the figure for the US across the world...
39 million cases of flu in the US is about 12% of the population. Let's be slightly cautious and say it's 6% for the entire world(I know that could still be too high).
6% of the world's population is about 450,000,000.
Estimated flu deaths each year are 250,000-500,000
That gives a fatality rate of 0.055-0.11%
1. It wouldn't be "deadly to catch". It's likely it is highly contagious, like the flu. But SO FAR contagion to deaths is low and importantly (and already pointed out) the case rate has started to plateau.
2. I already mentioned the "Flu would have to have 500m cases worldwide" to match the 500k and 0.1% US death data from CDC. Yet that would be a pure guess. Which would be understandable for Covid-19 as it doesn't have enough historical data. With Flu (for Worldwide figures), we should not be having to guess. You probs missed me mention it, amongst my letter to the Lancet.
I think we'll both be choosing figures that suit both our narratives but until Covid-19 epidemic has ended then we both won't know the real figures. Should be done with by May.
On another note, there is quite a bit about the source of Covid-19 being a developed and released pathogen (of a Flu variant) from a Lab in Wuhan.
What concerns me more is that the current UK government seemed very slow to react. Maybe they have information that means they didn't need to respond erratically or rush people home? Or maybe they're so inept that if a scenario developed, where a much quicker and contagious pathogen were leaked here, our current government don't appear as equipped to deal with or respond to a much more threatening outbreak. When mirrored to their recent response.
And yes this is coming from someone who previously worked in a capacity to respond to such attacks. I was confident back then and I was confident in my colleagues as well as any contingency. I'm sure plenty on here will have a good chuckle "NoShop?! Trained as part of an Emergency Response team relating to Chemical & Nuclear warfare? Massive lolz."
Anyway, that's another story.