Let's Get Political!

[chalkies_shorts]

We're agreeing too often recently.

[Flashheart]

And the DUP say no.

It's fucking hilarious, except for it isn't. But it still is.

[Batch]

And now no majority for any proposal in indicitive votes.

2nd ref and  customs Union still trounce May's attempts though!

[pauld]

It's the same deal whether she fucks off or not. Remainers and leavers are united it's a shit deal but suddenly when the nutcase leaves it's now a good deal. Fantastic way to do business and fuck the electorate and country.

Like I say, party before country. Except for Johnson (and Gove), then it's Boris first, last and everything and fuck the rest of you. How's that principled ERG leadership that you were so keen on a few weeks ago looking about now?

[chalkies_shorts]

The erg are now split in 2. Rees might looking to back Mays deal as it is the only brexit deal on the table. Baker however is still anti. They both have their followers.
At least they are trying to represent the leaver majority unlike grieve, gauke etc.
I don't think the erg are any more principled than other MPs. Apart from a handful, every one a deceitful, self interested shitcunt

[pauld]

The erg are now split in 2. Rees might looking to back Mays deal as it is the only brexit deal on the table. Baker however is still anti. They both have their followers.
At least they are trying to represent the leaver majority unlike grieve, gauke etc.

No they're not, they're representing themselves and their own interests as always. Self before party before country

[RedRag]

We're agreeing too often recently.

unlike our MPs
















(except on their pay increases)

[chalkies_shorts]

Alright then, lets try this. The erg are leavers and the majority of the country (who could be bothered or eligible to vote and at that point in time). their self interests coincide unlike Grieve, Gauke etc whose self interests coincide with the minority of the country (who could be bothered or eligible to vote and at that point in time)

[RedRag]

I think we come back to the fundamental problem of the sheer variety of leave options.

if the 2016 referendum is the point in time at which you judge it then, as I recall, there was not one advocate of wto/no deal

I don't accept the General Election mandate either (because it is general) but the Con. manifesto was still advocating a deal and strong and stable government  

The ERG has campaigned (quite succesfully) for the opposite.  But there is no mandate for it.

[Reg Smeeton]

I think we come back to the fundamental problem of the sheer variety of leave options.

if the 2016 referendum is the point in time at which you judge it then, as I recall, there was not one advocate of wto/no deal

I don't accept the General Election mandate either (because it is general) but the Con. manifesto was still advocating a deal and strong and stable government  

The ERG has campaigned (quite succesfully) for the opposite.  But there is no mandate for it.

May delivered on her manifesto pledge to negotiate a WA which would be good for UK and EU.... if Parliament can't accept it, can't agree on a way forward and can't take the legal default of leaving with no deal on 12th April, then it has to be a long extension of Art 50, and a GE.

[horlock07]

And now no majority for any proposal in indicitive votes.

2nd ref and  customs Union still trounce May's attempts though!

That was always going to happen though, hence why Monday has also been set aside for a second round of voting, despite the fake horror of the Tory hardliners last night that there would be more votes (despite them voting it through the house earlier in the week)!

As you say though the one shock of last night was how well the 2nd ref and customs union votes went, which I think surprised everyone, as Ian Dunt notes:

'The ideas could be lumped into three broad categories: First, hardline Brexit - represented by a motion on no-deal and another on a standstill trade deal negotiation. Second, soft Brexit - represented by Labour's motion, a customs union proposal, and two single market models.  Third, the Remain options - represented by an amendment on a People's Vote and one on revocation.

The hardline Brexit options fell hard. John Baron's demand for no-deal lost by 160 votes to 400. Marcus Fysh's plan for a standstill negotiation on a trade deal fell by 139-422.

Soft Brexit did surprisingly badly. Labour's alternate plan, which does not specify a model, fell by 237-307. Nick Boles' much-publicised idea of Common Market 2.0 was defeated by 188 to 283. Another soft Brexit plan to stay in the EEA went even worse, with just 65 votes to 377.

On the Remain wing, the revocation plan was also badly defeated, by 184 to 293.

Two propositions stood out, prompting gasps as their numbers were read out in the Commons. Ken Clarke's proposal for the UK to stay in the customs union fell by just 264 votes to 272 - a majority of just eight. And Margaret Beckett's motion calling for a confirmatory public vote on whatever deal was passed fell by 268 votes to 295 - a majority of 27. It was a far tighter margin than expected and also the single largest positive vote for any Brexit option so far.

For comparison, Theresa May's deal was defeated by 432 votes to 202 the first time - a majority of 230. And then it was defeated by 391 votes to 242 the second - a majority of 149.

In the moments after the result, Tory MPs lashed out bitterly, shouting that it was absurd that more votes should take place on Monday. But it was all theatrics. They knew what the business motion said. They knew MPs had already voted to support it. They knew what the multi-stage plan involved. The truth was they'd been startled by how close the second referendum option was. Their only option was to try to undermine the process.

The question now becomes which options are brought back to be decided on on Monday. Logically, it should be customs union membership and a second referendum, but Letwin may want to include one or two more. There is also a question about the voting system. The introduction of a Single Transferable Vote or Alternative Vote system could help bring out the majorities, by taking account of MPs' least-bad outcomes, rather than the ones they actively support. And then there are the bigger questions: Do parliamentarians have the courage and tenacity to force the winning proposition on the government, if they can find it? None of this is clear.

But that's for a later day. The question for tonight was whether this process could throw up a few credible ways forward. It has done. Despite all the hysteria and theatrical condemnations after the vote, that was precisely what it did. The answers it provided were not quite what we expected. They suggest a customs union bolt-on to May's deal, subject to a public vote, would be likely to get through the Commons.

It's only been 48 hours since the Letwin amendment was passed. And already the Brexit debate is changing beyond all recognition.'

[Ardiles]

So I think what you're saying is that once May's deal is properly off the table this weekend - either because it's been defeated a 3rd time or because her authority has now evaporated to the point that there is no longer a prospect of it being resurrected - that there would then be a reasonable prospect of one or more of the defeated indicative vote options actually passing when put to the vote again on Monday?

[horlock07]

So I think what you're saying is that once May's deal is properly off the table this weekend - either because it's been defeated a 3rd time or because her authority has now evaporated to the point that there is no longer a prospect of it being resurrected - that there would then be a reasonable prospect of one or more of the defeated indicative vote options actually passing when put to the vote again on Monday?

I think so, I read somewhere yesterday that if you do the arithmetic even if the softer ERG fold, the hardline headbangers and DUP are so ideologically driven they are unlikely to (which puts JRM in a pickle as he said he would only support if the DUP do) then its not clear if May have enough to get her deal over the line as it stands!

I think parliament is sitting on Friday this week so not sure at what stage she has to confirm she is bringing MV3 to the house, I believe more indicative votes are scheduled for Monday so assume will have to be before then.

[RedRag]

May delivered on her manifesto pledge to negotiate a WA which would be good for UK and EU.... if Parliament can't accept it, can't agree on a way forward and can't take the legal default of leaving with no deal on 12th April, then it has to be a long extension of Art 50, and a GE.

That's a good distillation of where we are now.

We just have to sit back and wait to see if we will be consulted in any way.

I think many of us, with our own different views, are feeling very sidelined.  We cannot all prevail.  There have to be winners and losers.  I am as uncompromising as the next man in my views.

However, I do wonder whether we might be more widely and cohesively represented by coalitions and PR/STV systems?  It might just be a case of the grass appearing greener......

[horlock07]

May delivered on her manifesto pledge to negotiate a WA which would be good for UK and EU....

Has she, you struggle to find a majority in parliament or the country as a whole who think her deal would be good for the UK?