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Author Topic: Division One Odds for Promotion  (Read 823 times)
dell boy

« on: Sunday, January 10, 2010, 12:12:50 »

Value betting for a play-off place or automatic.
Odds below (Corals) and my view on the value bets:-

 Leeds 1/6 
 Norwich 4/7 
 Charlton 5/4 
 Colchester 11/4 
 Huddersfield 7/2 
 Franchise 11/2 
 Swindon 11/2 
Millwall 6/1 
 Southampton 7/1
 
 Bristol Rovers 18/1 
 Walsall 18/1 
 Carlisle 20/1
__________________ below this line no chance: 
 Hartlepool 28/1 
 Brentford 33/1 
 Southend 40/1 
 Brighton 40/1 
 Yeovil 40/1 
 Oldham 50/1 
 Gillingham 50/1 
 Leyton Orient 100/1 
 Exeter 125/1 
 Tranmere 300/1 
 Wycombe 750/1 
 Stockport 2500/1

1) Leeds look certain of automatic
2) It makes sense to believe Charlton or Norwich will take the other place, whoever misses out automatically will be no dead cert to go up via the play-offs all the pressure will be on them.
3) Swindon at 11/2 are very short imo and do not have the depth in the squad. Huddersfield have spent heavily this season and have the depth to make a steady challenge, but they loose too many for me. Colchester are over-rated again these are all my opinons.
4) So for me there are two good punts. Millwall and Southampton - Millwall have gone through a very sticky patch and had loads of injuries and expect them to start to produce a run, Southampton have depth and money to spend and are a match for anyone in this division, especially if they make the play-offs. So looking at the odds of 6/1 and 7/1 for those two, they are my choices to go up via the play offs.
5) By picking two now and at the end of the day it is really only perming 2 from a possible 8 candidates those odds will shorten three fold when it comes to the play-offs especially Southampton.

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