So, What Happens . . .

[BambooToTheFuture]

I’d guess we’d lose between £2-3m on gate money alone.

True but subtract matchday overheads, and add in some of the ifollow money..might bring us to around £2m in and £2.5m out? Don't think anyone minds breaking even or being near to it. Let's hope it's nearer (or above) £1.5m in the bailout dollars.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I’m guessing the average price we’d sell a ticket for would be £15, 8,000 average gate over 23 games = £2.76m

Adjust as you see fit. In fact, the £15 is prob a bit low. Add on food, drink, progs, shop etc and it’s even more.

[BambooToTheFuture]

I’m guessing the average price we’d sell a ticket for would be £15, 8,000 average gate over 23 games = £2.76m

I went on a rough quick avg of £20 at 6.5k/7k avg gate.

[Abrahammer]

Fans in Windsor Park for the Euro playoff game proving it can be done without any issue

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I went on a rough quick avg of £20 at 6.5k/7k avg gate.

So you reckon we’d get less fans than last season?

Average last season 7800

[Batch]

but season tickets work out much cheaper per game, well £15 early bird renewal side stands.

+ kids

actually, maybe the 2-2.75m bracket is bang on.

as things stand, the club is still getting the ST money from this year.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Re reading that statement, it says the money is to cover lost gate income, so I hope they don’t base the payout per club on average attendances. Sunderland would get a huge % of it compared to every other club.

[BambooToTheFuture]

So you reckon we’d get less fans than last season?

Average last season 7800

In a team top of the league/going for automatic/full of confidence.

I don't think there is much in the gates between L1 & L2 (for a club of our size/support). If we were playing at the top end then likely higher than last season. Playing mid-table or lower, not unreasonable to see that gate dip to about a 7k avg. Playing on a hiding to nothing or as the league donkeys (sorry Donkey) again, expect a dip as only the die hards, STH's and I-don't-want-to-accept-our-fate-yetters would turn up. I would take a punt that LP may have projected a mid to lower mid table finish (14th-18th), so I'll stand by my 7k as best case projection.

But as stated before, you didn't factor in the operating costs of the matchday; I'm sure you're aware that the gate isn't all pure profit. We don't have that issue this season (or nowhere near it) but we also have a gate of zero. When factoring in both sources of income (iFollow (£10 per match at 1k viewers = c250k? I don't know the figures, could be much higher. Hope so) and the much sought bailout money) I put that at about £2m incoming against a projected net incoming of about £2.5m (with (£20 at 7k x 23 = c£3m) - (*£250k policing + £200k all other matchday overheads = c£450k) gives us the proj. net income stated above).

*L2 match of Town v Luton in 2018 apparently cost £68k to police, with Town being invoiced £12.5k....so let's say it cost around £10k per match) https://thefsa.org.uk/news/cost-of-policing-is-making-clubs-pay-more-the-answer/

[Batch]

you're still missing season ticket money from this season.

unless you think we'll get refunded

[Bogus Dave]

I’m guessing the average price we’d sell a ticket for would be £15, 8,000 average gate over 23 games = £2.76m

Adjust as you see fit. In fact, the £15 is prob a bit low. Add on food, drink, progs, shop etc and it’s even more.

About 3k of those fans will be season ticket holders

[BambooToTheFuture]

you're still missing season ticket money from this season.

unless you think we'll get refunded

Who me or Aud? I'm including ST money in the total (our avg gate of 7k will include STH's) whether in attendance or not. But it's why I raised the avg ticket price to £20 instead of £15. If we assume, not all STH's will have early bird (@£15 per ticket) and walk ups will pay around £23/24 depending on the game?

I think in some instances we might have more iFollow viewers at away games than the real numbers but I can't remember the split. I just know we get some of that. Haven't included that away figure but I'd say the proj. above of iFollow+Bailout = c£2m net against the "real" Matchday of c£2.5m net is probably not too far off.

The more bailout we can extract from EFL the better. If it's based on avg att. then I'll happily take Auds 7.8k (they would have to base it on last seasons no?!) but that would place us 12 out of 48 (47 - Bury) EFL clubs, bang on a quarter down the list. Sunderland were the highest across all 48 with 30k (and across the whole of the EFL). After Sunderland it dips quite quick (only Ipswich on 19k, Pompey 17k, Bradford 14 (anomaly att with STs at the price of a bag of coal), Bolton 11k & Plymouth just nudging 10k. The rest are sub 10k). That's the first six out the way. I can't be arsed to work out the difference properly but let's say the Sunderland got £2m and Ipswich got £1.8m, with the lowest (Macc at less than 2k) getting £300k. With us 12th highest, I still reckon we'd end up with about the same as projected, maybe a touch more.

Also a reminder that 24 clubs in L1 (5) and L2 (19) had an avg gate of less than 5k, with 15 of them (4 in L1, 11 in L2) not breaking a 4k avg.

But if that was the case £50m just wouldn't touch it. Total gates (and they are pro-rata at 19 matches) for L2 were c2m. At £20 per ticket that is £40m for L2 alone. Gates for L1 were c3.5m, again at £20 per ticket that is c£70m so a bailout of £110m would be required done on lost gate average. Unless they are somehow either gauging it on a £10 per ticket average (seems pretty low) or only providing bailout for the 10 games of potentially lost revenue upto Jan? Which would bring either to around £55m (£35m for L1 & £20m for L2)

If the latter, are they preparing to have fans back after the New Year? Seems bloody doubtful and in my eyes, if £50m or £55m is being offered then it should be refused. £80m (split £50m L1 & £30m L2) would seem a more sensible figure. It's not like the Premier League clubs couldn't afford to avg £3m each, when likely the average PL starting XI player is probably on c£60k per week (c£3m pa).

Data from www.worldfootball.net

[RobertT]

Fans in Windsor Park for the Euro playoff game proving it can be done without any issue

The Rugby in the Anzacs has been open to full crowds - but, that is what you can do when you have effective public health measures in place first.

[pauld]

I’m guessing the average price we’d sell a ticket for would be £15, 8,000 average gate over 23 games = £2.76m

Adjust as you see fit. In fact, the £15 is prob a bit low. Add on food, drink, progs, shop etc and it’s even more.

15 quid is about right. That was the figure the club worked on as an average in the early 2000s, just prior to Fitton and neither the prices nor the gates have changed very much since then. We don't make any money from catering, Jed sold that off.

[flammableBen]

When does the catering deal run out?

[horlock07]

When does the catering deal run out?

2125 I think.